– By GF Value
The stock of The9 (NAS:NCTY, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $31.2 per share and the market cap of $368.2 million, The9 stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for The9 is shown in the chart below.
Because The9 is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth.
It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. The9 has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.44, which is worse than 88% of the companies in Interactive Media industry. The overall financial strength of The9 is 1 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of The9 is poor. This is the debt and cash of The9 over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. The9 has been profitable 0 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $0.1 million and earnings of $34.363 a share. Its operating margin is -26322.29%, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in Interactive Media industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of The9 at 1 out of 10, which indicates poor profitability. This is the revenue and net income of The9 over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of The9 is -88.9%, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in Interactive Media industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 58.7%, which ranks better than 86% of the companies in Interactive Media industry.
Another way to evaluate a company’s profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, The9’s ROIC was -18.84, while its WACC came in at 9.05. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of The9 is shown below:
In conclusion, The stock of The9 (NAS:NCTY, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. The company’s financial condition is poor and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks better than 86% of the companies in Interactive Media industry. To learn more about The9 stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.