Noncommercial Traders Grow Their Bullish Canola Bets

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This is of interest for several reasons. First, this is the largest net-long position seen since 22,832 contracts were reported as of April 27, or more than four months. This is the fifth consecutive weekly increase in the size of this position, while a modest increase in the size of this position would lead to the largest speculative position seen since late February, or more than six months.

As well, this took place on a week when the speculative traders reduced their bullish net-long positions in soybeans, soybean oil and soymeal futures. The noncommercial net-long position in soybeans fell for a third consecutive week while to the lowest level seen since August 2020. The noncommercial net-long position in soybean oil fell lower for the first time in five weeks, while to the smallest bullish position seen since mid-August. The noncommercial net-long position for soymeal futures fell for a second week, while to the lowest level seen since August.

Lastly, the week-over-week change in the size of this position resulted in an increase of 6,384 contracts or 41.5%. This is the largest week-over-week change in the number of contracts seen since the week of Oct. 27 2020.

This group can change its stance quickly. The daily November chart shows price nearing key support levels which may play an important role in short term trade. The contract’s 50-day moving average is $872.50/mt, just $4.60/mt below today’s close, while the lower-boundary of a consolidation chart pattern is shown at $872.20/mt, again, just $4.90/mt below today’s close. This bears watching in upcoming trade.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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