The Fed: Bitcoin, Gold And The Dow

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One of the major reasons that bitcoin was meant to be a sensible investment is that it could be made part of a portfolio where it would be an uncorrelated asset providing extra diversification in an ever-increasingly correlated world where it is hard to protect wealth from the privations of bad luck.

Diversification is simply taking hold of the idea of never having all your eggs in one basket. Sadly through the magic of arbitrage it’s hard to have any eggs outside of the basket because the global financial system balances and counterbalances assets in such a way that when one flops everything flops with it.

Bitcoin was meant to be one egg you could own that was outside of the basket and even if that egg was mighty volatile it was worth owning because of that disconnect. Those days are over.

Here is the S&P 500 and bitcoin trading before and directly after Jay Powel spoke on Wednesday September 22, 2021:

Even gold took a similar path:

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It underlines how everything pivots on the Fed, which in a way is no surprise.

In any event, while bitcoin remains impressively resilient under ever-increasing regulatory threat, it is no longer an uncorrelated asset.

What it remains is the first stop haven asset. So while the chart looks as bearish as can be:

Any geopolitical flareups will send the price into orbit, even though perhaps you may learn about the new emergency after bitcoin has mooned rather than before it goes on a rally up.

For now, at least, crypto is for either short-term traders or the “die on the hill” hodlers. Meanwhile the future is in the hands of the Fed.