Investors can buy low cost index fund if they want to receive the average market return. But if you invest in individual stocks, some are likely to underperform. That’s what has happened with the Flex Ltd. (NASDAQ:FLEX) share price. It’s up 56% over three years, but that is below the market return. On the other hand, the more recent gain of 54% over a year is certainly pleasing.
So let’s assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they’ve moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During three years of share price growth, Flex achieved compound earnings per share growth of 26% per year. The average annual share price increase of 16% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. We’d venture the lowish P/E ratio of 11.93 also reflects the negative sentiment around the stock.
The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Flex has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
A Different Perspective
We’re pleased to report that Flex shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 54% over one year. That’s better than the annualised return of 6% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we’ve spotted with Flex .
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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