LIVE MARKETS Dow Industrials: Inside the lines

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DOW INDUSTRIALS: INSIDE THE LINES (0900 EST/1400 GMT)

Over the past six months or so the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) has been trapped between two log-scale trend lines:

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DJI11232021

On a weekly basis, the Dow closed above a more than 90-year resistance line in late March. With this action, the polarity of the line flipped from resistance to support.

Since then, the Dow has bounced off of it a number of times, refusing to end a week back below it. It now resides as support around 34,000.

On the upside, the blue-chip average faces a resistance line from early 2018. This line capped strength in mid-August and again earlier this month. It now resides around 36,700.

Meanwhile, over the past six months or so, weekly momentum has been waning. The MACD hit a more than one-year low in mid-October, and despite the Dow’s early-November thrust to new highs, the momentum study managed just a tepid rise.

The Dow is now down 2.6% from its 36,565.73 November 8 intraday high. But with the MACD remaining weak, risk remains for DJI to continue to oscillate down to once again test the support line. read more

Ultimately, a weekly close outside the range defined by these two lines may signal potential for acceleration. Ending back below the support line can suggest a failed breakout above a very long-term trend line, with risk then for a major reversal.

(Terence Gabriel)

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Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own

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