Upwork Inc. (UPWK) Stock Behavior Isn’t Quite As Predictable As You Think

Upwork Inc. (NASDAQ:UPWK) price on Wednesday, July 27, rose 4.71% above its previous day’s close as an upside momentum from buyers pushed the stock’s value to $23.14.

A look at the stock’s price movement, the close in the last trading session was $22.10, moving within a range at $22.39 and $23.28. The beta value (5-Year monthly) was 1.90. Turning to its 52-week performance, $61.90 and $14.85 were the 52-week high and 52-week low respectively. Overall, UPWK moved 4.00% over the past month.

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Upwork Inc.’s market cap currently stands at around $3.08 billion, with investors looking forward to this quarter’s earnings report slated for Feb 21, 2022 – Feb 25, 2022. Analysts project the company’s earnings per share (EPS) to be -$0.08, which has seen fiscal year 2022 EPS growth forecast to increase to -$0.16 and about $0.23 for fiscal year 2023. Per the data, EPS growth is expected to be -366.70% for 2022 and 243.80% for the next financial year.

Analysts have a consensus estimate of $149.55 million for the company’s revenue for the quarter, with a low and high estimate of $148.57 million and $150.9 million respectively. The average forecast suggests up to a 24.40% growth in sales growth compared to quarterly growth in the same period last fiscal year. Wall Street analysts have also projected the company’s year-on-year revenue for 2022 to grow to $604.5 million, representing a 20.20% jump on that reported in the last financial year.

Revisions could be used as tool to get short term price movement insight, and for the company that in the past seven days was 5 upward and no downward review(s). Turning to the stock’s technical picture we see that short term indicators suggest on average that UPWK is a 50% Buy. On the other hand, the stock is on average a 50% Sell as suggested by medium term indicators while long term indicators are putting the stock in Hold category.

11 analyst(s) have given their forecast ratings for the stock on a scale of 1.00-5.00 for a strong buy to strong sell recommendation. A total of 3 analyst(s) rate the stock as a Hold, 8 recommend UPWK as a Buy and 0 give it an Overweight rating. Meanwhile, 0 analyst(s) rate the stock as Underweight and 0 say it is a Sell. As such, the average rating for the stock is Overweight which could provide an opportunity for investors keen on increasing their holdings of the company’s stock.

UPWK’s current price about 5.23% and 16.19% off the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14) currently prints 57.95, while 7-day volatility ratio is 4.79% and 6.05% in the 30-day chart. Further, Upwork Inc. (UPWK) has a beta value of 1.65, and an average true range (ATR) of 1.30. Analysts have given the company’s stock an average 52-week price target of $31.82, forecast between a low of $20.00 and high of $53.00. Looking at the price targets, the low is 13.57% off current price level while to achieve the yearly target high, price needs to move -129.04%. Nonetheless, investors will most likely welcome a -33.97% jump to $31.00 which is the analysts’ median price.

In the market, a comparison of Upwork Inc. (UPWK) and its peers suggest the former has performed considerably stronger. Data shows UPWK’s intraday price has changed 4.71% in last session and -57.67% over the past year. Comparatively, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has moved 6.69% on the day and only -6.21% in the past 12 months. Looking at another peer, we see that PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) price has gained 12.18% on the day. However, the stock is -71.24% off its price a year ago. Elsewhere, the overall performance for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial shows that the indexes are up 2.62% and 1.37% respectively in the last trading.

If we refocus on Upwork Inc. (NASDAQ:UPWK), historical trading data shows that trading volumes averaged 1.12 million over the past 10 days and 1.36 million over the past 3 months. The company’s latest data on shares outstanding shows there are 129.36 million shares.

The 1.00% of Upwork Inc.’s shares are in the hands of company insiders while institutional holders own 80.70% of the company’s shares. Also important is the data on short interest which shows that short shares stood at 5.14 million on Apr 28, 2022, giving us a short ratio of 4.93. The data shows that as of Apr 28, 2022 short interest in Upwork Inc. (UPWK) stood at 3.97% of shares outstanding, with shares short rising to 4.83 million registered in Mar 30, 2022. Current price change has pushed the stock -32.26% YTD, which shows the potential for further growth is there. It is this reason that could see investor optimism for the UPWK stock continues to rise going into the next quarter.

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