FedEx Corporation's (NYSE:FDX) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

FedEx’s (NYSE:FDX) stock is up by a considerable 17% over the past three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company’s key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. In this article, we decided to focus on FedEx’s ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

Check out our latest analysis for FedEx

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for FedEx is:

15% = US$3.8b ÷ US$25b (Based on the trailing twelve months to May 2022).

The ‘return’ is the yearly profit. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders’ equity, the company generated $0.15 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or “retain”, we are then able to evaluate a company’s future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

FedEx’s Earnings Growth And 15% ROE

To start with, FedEx’s ROE looks acceptable. Be that as it may, the company’s ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 24%. Further, FedEx’s five year net income growth of 4.8% is on the lower side. Bear in mind, the company does have a respectable level of ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is higher. So there might be other reasons for the earnings growth to be low. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is facing competitive pressures.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that FedEx’s reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 11% in the same period, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is FedEx fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is FedEx Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

FedEx has a low three-year median payout ratio of 23% (meaning, the company keeps the remaining 77% of profits) which means that the company is retaining more of its earnings. However, the low earnings growth number doesn’t reflect this fact. Therefore, there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

In addition, FedEx has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Based on the latest analysts’ estimates, we found that the company’s future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 20%. As a result, FedEx’s ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 16% for future ROE.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like FedEx has some positive aspects to its business. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a respectable rate of return and is reinvesting a huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that’s preventing growth. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company’s earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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