The options market is pricing in a 0.6% move for the S&P 500, higher or lower, on Wednesday, according to Citi Global Markets data. Under Trump’s current executive orders on trade, the pause on his so-called reciprocal tariffs will expire at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday.
That’s a smaller jolt than the roughly 0.8% swing investors expect when the next consumer-price index report is due on July 15. On the day of the next Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, they project a 0.9% swing.