Bitcoin may be acting like a recession is imminent — even if the macroeconomic data suggests otherwise.
In an X post on Friday, André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, said that bitcoin is currently pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since the 2022 Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Drawing on macro survey data from sources such as Sentix, ISM, and the Philly Fed, Dragosch produced a chart comparing global growth expectations to the macroeconomic signals embedded in bitcoin’s price.
The chart shows a sharp divergence: the black line representing bitcoin’s implied growth outlook has plunged below -1 standard deviation, significantly more pessimistic than the survey-based macro indicator, which remains around neutral. According to Dragosch, this setup resembles past dislocations like March 2020 and November 2022, just before bitcoin staged outsized rallies.
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” he wrote, calling the current risk-reward setup asymmetric. “You’re not even remotely bullish enough,” he added, suggesting a recovery could resemble the sixfold rally seen after the March 2020 Covid shock.
However, sentiment remains fragile.
The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index held steady at 20 (“Fear”) on Saturday, matching yesterday’s level and slightly above the year-to-date low of 10, last seen on Nov. 22. For comparison, the index sat at 39 (“Fear”) one month ago, and hit a high of 84 (“Extreme Greed”) in late November 2024.
Bitcoin traded at $90,559 as of 11:30 a.m. UTC on Nov. 29, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours. Year-to-date, the cryptocurrency is down 3% and 28% from its all-time high of $126,080, reached on Oct. 6.
Meanwhile, macro expectations may be shifting.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders assigning an 86.4% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% range at the central bank’s December policy meeting.