Wall Street is about to flip the calendar to the fourth quarter of 2024.
History shows that nine of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors have typically risen in the fourth quarter of election years since 1992, “possibly due to the lifting of uncertainty once the election was over,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. (See table above.)
“Factors that may continue to propel this market [in the fourth quarter] include China’s recent stimulus program, the ongoing easing in U.S. inflation readings, as the Personal Consumption Expenditures for August recorded another downtick in growth, and the likelihood of two more Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts totaling 50 to 75 basis points,” Stovall said in a Monday client note.
Eight of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors were set for monthly gains in September. The S&P 500’s consumer-discretionary and utilities sectors were two of the top performers, up 7.3% and 5.5% so far this month, respectively, according to FactSet data.