Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares rose by more than 2% after the company healthily raised its earnings and cash flow growth targets under a new 2030 corporate strategy released Tuesday.
The oil supermajor, the top producer in the United States, is projecting $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth from 2024 to 2030, up from $20 billion and $30 billion, respectively, under a previous plan.
The updated figures assume that the price of the international oil benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F), currently hovering around $61.90, trades at an inflation-adjusted $65 after a year that has been harrowing for oil prices.
Brent crude and the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) have fallen by 16.8% and 18%, respectively, since the start of the year.
“Several years ago, when we began to transform this company, we did so with one objective: to fully unlock our competitive advantages. Today, our transformation is driving industry-leading results,” said Darren Woods, ExxonMobil chairman and CEO.
Woods noted that the company expects to hit its new targets with “no increase in capital” while generating a 17% return on capital employed. Exxon is also ahead of its 2030 emissions reduction plans, Woods said. The oil company’s shares are trading 10% higher than where they opened at the start of January, consistently outperforming the broader energy sector.
Exxon’s heightened projections arrive as the industry is facing multiple headwinds. Analysts have reached a unanimous consensus that the oil market is quickly heading for a large oversupply glut that will be counted in the millions of barrels per day, expected to depress prices. And in the Permian Basin, where Exxon is a prolific operator, shale gas volumes are slowing, and rig counts have been falling.
Commodities strategists are targeting average prices for West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, to average anywhere from a slightly lower $57 to a dramatically lower range of around the $30 to $40 per barrel mark.
Despite this, Exxon is planning to increase its production to 5.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (bpoed) by 2030, up from a previous target of 5.4 million bpoed, according to its new strategy.
At the same time, the oil major is exploring other sources of potential revenue, reportedly in advanced discussions with data center developers to supply natural gas power to the AI infrastructure economy.