Bitcoin has been on a meteoric rise in 2024, reaching a new all-time high of $93,495 on Wednesday, November 13. As the flagship cryptocurrency inches closer to the $100,000 mark, investors and analysts are debating: will Bitcoin hit this target by the end of this year?
The crypto community is abuzz with cautious optimism. Institutional support, favorable political developments on the back of Donald Trump‘s election win including the promise to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and strong market fundamentals are fueling bullish sentiments. However, concerns over market structure, potential short-term corrections, and timeline uncertainties temper the enthusiasm.
One of the most significant factors propelling Bitcoin’s surge is the influx of investment. Financial giants like BlackRock have not only added Bitcoin to their balance sheets but have also initiated Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), attracting record inflows of $2.6 billion shortly after the U.S. election.
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“If you take into account the fact that large companies like BlackRock and other major financial institutions are holding the asset on their balance sheets, this is a much different reality than any other previous cycles for the asset,” J.D. Seraphine, CEO of crypto-based AI validation platform Raiinmaker, told Newsweek.
The approval and adoption of Bitcoin ETFs have provided traditional investors with easier access to the cryptocurrency market. This institutional endorsement is seen as a validation of Bitcoin’s legitimacy and long-term potential.
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Trump’s election victory fuels Bitcoin’s price rise
Of course, the recent presidential victory for Trump has been viewed as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Many in the crypto industry anticipate that a Trump administration will usher in more crypto-friendly regulations.
“Trump’s victory has certainly accelerated price movement in the cycle,” Seraphine noted. “There certainly is a great deal of hype surrounding Trump coming into office and creating regulatory clarity for cryptocurrency in the U.S.”
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Gabriele Giancola, CEO of Qiibee, echoed this sentiment, saying to Newsweek: “Bitcoin’s performance historically aligns with significant geopolitical and economic events, and the aftermath of the U.S. election could see BTC reaching $100,000 this year or shortly after a potential Trump reelection.”
In this photo illustration, a Bitcoin chart is displayed on a laptop screen on November 12, 2024 in Austin, Texas. Will Bitcoin hit the $100k mark before the end of 2024?
Brandon Bell//Getty Images
This is even inspiring other politicians globally to get in on Bitcoin. Polish presidential candidate Sławomir Mentzen has pledged to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if he wins the 2025 election.
However, not everyone is convinced that political developments alone will sustain Bitcoin’s rally. Lorien Gamaroff, CEO and co-founder of Bitcoin wallet and payment platform Centbee, cautioned against over-reliance on political figures. “But can the crypto community afford to put its hopes in a leader whose track record is filled with broken promises?” he wrote in a recent LinkedIn post.
Bitcoin “halving” explained
Bitcoin’s reduced issuance rate due to the recent halving event has tightened supply, while demand continues to grow. A Bitcoin halving event is when the reward that miners earn for creating new blocks of Bitcoin is cut in half. This happens roughly every four years or after 210,000 blocks are mined.
Trading volumes have reached record highs, and volatility has decreased compared to previous bull runs, indicating a more mature market. Historical patterns suggest that once Bitcoin surpasses its previous all-time high, it often experiences significant gains.
“If you study the price history of BTC, it follows a very predictable pattern,” Seraphine explained. “Once it crosses the previous all-time high, it historically hits levels multiples above that previous all-time high.”
It may not happen by the end of 2024, but experts think Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is a matter of when, not if.
Photo Illustration by Newsweek
Despite the bullish indicators, experts warn of potential factors that could slow or reverse this growth. Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, posted on X last week: “Leverage needs to be cleaned up before an attack on $100K. Please manage your risk carefully.”
These caveats aside, Marszalek is all in. “All nations should sell their useless gold reserves and buy bitcoin,” he posted on November 15.
Crypto options expiration could spark correction
However, a large options expiry of $11.8 billion on December 27 could introduce volatility and affect price dynamics, according to BNC. This is the date when cryptocurrency options contracts—derivatives that give traders the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an asset at a specific price—reach their expiration date.
Giancola pointed out the possibility of a short-term correction: “With the rapid price increases we’ve witnessed recently, a short-term correction within the next one-two months is plausible.” However, he remains optimistic about the long-term prospects: “That said, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains extremely strong.”
While the consensus leans toward Bitcoin eventually reaching $100,000, experts are divided on the timeline. Predictions range from hitting the mark by the end of 2024 to early 2025.
While there’s strong agreement on Bitcoin eventually reaching $100,000, there’s a split between those who see it happening in 2024 versus early 2025. Most experts emphasize this is more about “when” rather than “if,” but caution about potential corrections along the way.
The sentiment appears to be that, while short-term volatility and corrections are likely, the fundamental and institutional factors supporting Bitcoin’s growth are stronger than in previous cycles.