Recent enrollment losses dashed hopes of continued stabilization in Napa Valley Unified, as district leaders now warn of longer-term financial pressures and potential risks from federal funding cuts.
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Facing persistent enrollment declines and potential federal budget cuts, Napa Valley Unified School District is preparing to tighten its purse strings in the years ahead.
In its budget presented at a board meeting Thursday and set to be approved June 26, the district projected a $7.7 million general fund deficit for the upcoming 2025-26 academic year. While the district’s unrestricted budget — its most flexible pot of money — is balanced for the year ahead, the shortfall lies in its restricted side, which funds targeted programs.
Overall, revenues are expected to total $272.7 million, with spending at about $280.4 million, according to district documents.
And the gap is projected to grow: $13.4 million in 2026-27 and $24.4 million in 2027-28. To cover it, the district will draw from reserves set aside to support operations during enrollment declines.
That reserve is projected to shrink from $52.2 million this coming year to $12.4 million by 2027-28.
Even with projected deficit spending, the district plans to maintain a 10% reserve — about $30 million — for economic uncertainties through the next three years.
“I’m very glad we have a healthy reserve in these uncertain times,” trustee Cindy Watter said at the meeting. “I think we’re dealing with rabid squirrels frankly. The changes are coming thick and fast, and I’m glad we built up our reserves.”
The federal budget proposal, yet to be approved by Congress, calls for slashing $4.5 billion in K-12 funding and cutting support for adult education, migrant education and instruction for English learners.
If passed as written, those cuts would cost Napa Valley Unified about $1.8 million in federal funding for these programs, Assistant Superintendent Rob Mangewala said in his budget presentation.
For now, much of the district’s 2025-26 budget is insulated from those risks, but leaders will be watching federal developments closely.
“When we talk about elimination of funds, we think there’s going to be such a huge impact. But a lot of these are not huge dollar amounts relatively speaking,” Mangewala told the board.
Board President Eve Ryser thanked district leaders for positioning Napa Valley Unified to weather what she called “wacky times.”
Trustee Robin Jankiewicz credited Superintendent Rosanna Mucetti and Mangewala, the district’s chief business official, for their “prudent financial stewardship” and difficult decisions.
Between 2020 and 2022, the district shuttered Yountville Elementary, Mt. George Elementary and Harvest Middle School, while replacing River Middle School with Unidos Middle School, a dual-language immersion academy. Those moves, along with staff layoffs, were meant to protect the district’s long-term fiscal health.
But the enrollment challenge remains. The 16,000-student district expects to lose about 1,000 students — roughly 6% — by the 2028-29 school year, with funding tied to attendance likely to drop in tandem.
While the latest state data shows some signs of enrollment stabilization, Napa Valley Unified reported a loss of 110 students in seven months, between October 2024 and May. District officials linked the drop in part to immigration enforcement but provided no further detail.
“Immigration enforcement or other unknown factors may reverse this trend toward enrollment stability,” the district’s budget stated.
Amid these fiscal headwinds, Napa Valley Unified plans to expand programs in the coming years. That includes transitional kindergarten for all 4-year-olds and expanded after-school offerings for K-6 students, funded through state grants.
Still, district leaders signaled that the years ahead will require vigilance and likely tough choices to keep the district financially stable, though they did not specify yet what those decisions might entail.
You can reach Tarini Mehta at 707-521-5337 or tarini.mehta@pressdemocrat.com. On X (Twitter) @MehtaTarini.