After sweating out a memorable quarterfinal win over Costa Rica in PKs in the Gold Cup quarterfinals, USA are heavily favored in Wednesday night’s semifinal clash with Guatemala.
On paper, Guatemala is one of the weaker teams in CONCACAF. In fact, Guatemala is currently No. 106 in the FIFA world rankings, well behind No. 16 USA, No. 17 Mexico and No. 30 Canada.
But the Americans should not be overlooking anyone, especially not a team that has already pulled one massive upset in this tournament (Guatemala’s odds to beat Canada in the quarterfinals were as long as 9-to-1).
And remember, outside of a 5-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago to open group play, nothing has come easy for USA in this tournament.
With a win on Wednesday night, Manager Mauricio Pochettino and the USMNT would advance to the Gold Cup Final on Sunday, where they would meet the winner of tonight’s Mexico vs. Honduras matchup.
Mexico is the heavy bettting favorite in that one.
USA vs. Guatemala Betting Odds
Below are the odds from three top sportsbooks in the two most popular markets for soccer matches: three-way moneyline and match winner.
Gold Cup Quarterfinal Moneyline Odds: USA vs. Guatemala
The DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365 three-way moneyline odds below apply to today’s result after 90 minutes, plus stoppage time.
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| USA | -380 | -410 | -400 |
| Guatemala | +1000 | +950 | +1000 |
| Draw | +500 | +480 | +475 |
Gold Cup Quarterfinal Winner Odds: USA vs. Guatemala
Sportsbooks also offer each team’s odds to advance tonight.
In this market, it doesn’t matter whether the winner comes out on top in 90 minutes, extras or PKs.
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| USA | -1000 | -1050 | -700 |
| Guatemala | +550 | +630 | +450 |
How to Watch USA vs. Guatemala Gold Cup Semifinals
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1/Univision
Gold Cup Winner Odds: USA, Mexico Listed As Co-Favorites
Oddsmakers are currently split on the favorite to win the Gold Cup. USA is listed at +110 to win the tournament at DraftKings (just behind Mexico at +100).
At FanDuel (USA -115; MEX +105) and bet365 (USA -110; MEX +110), the Americans are the favorites ahead of the semifinals.
USA vs. Guatemala Betting Analysis, Pick
There’s no denything that this USA squad showed its scrappiness in Sunday night’s quarterfinal battle with Costa Rica.
Prevailing in PKs vs. one of the top keepers in soccer, Costa Rica’s Keylor Navas, required a ton of grit from Matthew Freese and the Americans.
The Americans — even this shorthanded version — also have a clear talent advantage over Guatemala.
The latter are led by veteran MLS right back Aaron Herrera of DC United. Per Transfermarkt, Herrera (market value: 2M euros) is the only player on the Guatemala roster who is currently valued at over 1M euros.
It’s also worth noting that tonight’s game marks Guatemala’s first Gold Cup semifinal appearance since 1996.
Can American Back Line Tighten Up vs. Guatemala?
All that being said, tonight’s game is unlikely to be a cakewalk for the US, especially if the back line continues to have costly breakdowns.
After giving up a tying goal by Costa Rica in the 71st minute, USA barely survived the rest of regulation, including a shot by Costa Rica’s Alonso Martinez that hit the post in the 85th minute.
The Americans largely controlled possession in the quarterfinals vs. Costa Rica (they finished with a 64-36 advantage), and they only allowed one open-play goal on three shots on target, while also winning the xG battle 1.87 to 1.59.
There were, however, enough defensive breakdowns to raise questions about whether this team can win this tournament.
The opening goal by Costa Rica on Sunday night came on a PK following a rash challenge by left back Max Arfsten. Later, with USA up 2-1, both Arfsten and Luca de la Torre allowed Costa Rica’s Carlos Mora to dribble into the box in the buildup to the Alonso Martinez goal that made it 2-2 in the 71st minute.
USA has now allowed three goals (including two in open play) in its last two games vs. Haiti and a Costa Rica side that was missing its top offensive weapon (leading Gold Cup scorer Manuel Ugalde was suspended).
The recent breakdowns in front of goal by USA make it tough to see the Americans enjoying the blowout that oddsmakers expect tonight.
Guatemala was fortunate to beat Canada in the quarters, as the Canadians the second half with 10 men. Still, this is a dangerous opponent that could absolutely keep this game close, if not take another heavily favored North American side to PKs, especially if the Americans aren’t at their best.
One thing Pochettino and Co. will have in their favor tonight is a raucous crowd, as 22,000-seat Energizer Park in St. Louis is sold out for this matchup.
Thanks to the momentum from the dramatic quarterfinal win over Costa Rica and the boost it will get from the home fans tonight, I expect USA to take advantage of this favorable matchup and reach the Final.
Don’t expect an easy victory, though. In what should be a low-scoring battle, give me USA to win a low-scoring match in regulation.
USA vs. Guatemala Best Bets
Value is always hard to come by when the odds are as lopsided as they are for this game, but Parlay: USA to Win + Under 3.5 (-130 at DK) strikes me as a solid, low-risk play here.
- Parlay: USA to Win + Under 3.5 (-130 at DK) — 1 unit
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