Buy PepsiCo Stock Ahead Of Its Upcoming Earnings?

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PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) is set to reveal its earnings on Thursday, July 17, 2025. For traders focused on events, analyzing historical stock performance around earnings announcements can provide a strategic edge, although actual outcomes compared to consensus expectations will be the primary factor influencing stock movement.

In the past, PEP stock has demonstrated a significant trend of positive one-day returns after earnings reports. During the last five years, the stock increased on the day following earnings in 78% of occurrences, registering a median positive return of 1.5% and a peak one-day gain of 3.6%.

Traders may consider two strategies for this upcoming event:

• Pre-earnings positioning: Based on historical probabilities, traders might look to establish a position before the earnings announcement.
• Post-earnings positioning: Evaluate the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings announcement to guide trading strategies.

Current consensus forecasts anticipate PepsiCo will post earnings of $2.03 per share with revenues of $22.3 billion. This figure is lower than the earnings of $2.28 per share on sales of $22.5 billion from the same quarter last year.

From a fundamental standpoint, PepsiCo possesses a market capitalization of $186 billion. Over the previous twelve months, the company achieved $92 billion in revenue, with $13 billion in operating income and a net profit of $9.4 billion, reflecting robust operational profitability.

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See earnings reaction history of all stocks

PepsiCo’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Returns

Key points concerning one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 14 positive and 4 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns were witnessed approximately 78% of the time.
• Interestingly, this percentage rises to 82% when only considering data from the last 3 years instead of the past 5.
• The median of the 14 positive returns is 1.5%, while the median of the 4 negative returns is -1.1%

Additional observations for the 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings are condensed with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively lower-risk approach (though ineffective if the correlation is weak) is to grasp the connection between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify the pair with the strongest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the strongest correlation, a trader may position themselves as “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D denotes the connection between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

At times, the performances of competitors can alter the stock reactions following earnings. In reality, the pricing may begin even before the earnings are released. Below is historical data showcasing the post-earnings performance of PepsiCo stock in relation to the stock performances of peers that reported earnings just prior to PepsiCo. For an equitable comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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