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SAN RAFAEL, Calif. – If Trump administration officials wanted a blowout jobs report, they didn’t get it. If Trump opponents wanted a jobs blow-up report, they didn’t get it either.
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What we got was an indicator that former Employment Development Department director, employment lawyer Mike Bernick, of the Duane Morris law firm puts this way: “It shows a certain weakening of the labor market,” said Bernick.
Weakening is a trend that’s still developing.
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Friday’s numbers don’t show any dramatic changes in the labor market. The unemployment rate slightly rose from 4.2% to 4.3%. The number of jobs gained was 22,000. That’s below the rate we’ve seen throughout this year,” said Bernick.
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Though healthcare and social services gained the most jobs, those gains were muted compared to past months. Federal, state, and local government jobs, a leader in job gains not so long ago, lost jobs in the latest report. White collar jobs in the private sector also waned.
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As we drove around downtown San Rafael, we saw no “help wanted” signs. This overall weakening labor market is also an indicator to the Federal Reserve because its two main missions are to keep prices stable and the labor market healthy.
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“I think they’re just one more push for the Fed to lower rates at their next meeting,” said the employment lawyer.
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As to worries that the Trump administration would cook the books and meddle with the numbers?
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“If they meddled, they meddled the wrong way. They actually revised the numbers for June to show greater losses, which is something the administration wouldn’t want to see,” said Bernick.
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While tariffs have aggravated inflation a bit, the job market is not taking major hits as yet. But, for the first time since April 2021, the number of available jobs is lower than the number of unemployed workers, also indicating a softening labor market.
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