Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research, HDFC Securities
All three primary US indices—the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite—reached record closing highs last week, reflecting robust investor confidence following the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut.
This broad-based performance was underpinned by strong corporate earnings results and an increasingly optimistic economic outlook, reinforcing the market’s positive trajectory heading into the final months of 2025.
Domestic equity benchmarks delivered robust gains for the third consecutive week, driven by optimism surrounding India-U.S. trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point interest rate reduction.
The Trump administration has introduced significant changes to the H-1B visa program. A new executive order imposes a $100,000 application fee for each new H-1B visa. The fee is applicable only for new applicants and will not affect renewals or current H-1B holders.
This sudden fee hike has sparked confusion and panic among tech companies and international workers, particularly those from India, which accounts for over 70% of H-1B beneficiaries. Costs of deploying Indian professionals to US client sites for new projects will surge, making on-site assignments less financially viable for many companies.
The Indian festival season begins today, marked by the auspicious start of Navratri.
PM Modi highlighted in an address to the nation yesterday that next-generation GST reforms will come into effect from today, bringing benefits to all citizens in the festive season. The new GST structure aims to increase savings, making everyday items more affordable.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal is scheduled to visit the United States today to accelerate talks on a bilateral trade agreement.
Markets will closely watch signals on a bilateral trade agreement and any prospects of tariff rollbacks. Constructive commentary could aid sentiment for exporters and IT companies, though the new H-1B visa fee dampens the sentiment for onsite-heavy IT firms.
Our markets are poised to open subdued, and market volatility will remain elevated due to changes in the H1B policy.
Derivatives positioning, domestic reforms, H1B Visa fee changes and trade negotiations will be the key drivers this week.