CHONGQING, CHINA – SEPTEMBER 14: In this photo illustration, a smartphone shows the logo of AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO), a U.S. company specializing in aftermarket automotive parts and accessories retail, with the company’s latest stock market chart seen in the background on September 14, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) is anticipated to announce its earnings on Tuesday, September 23, 2025. AutoZone’s revenue is forecasted to be approximately $6.25 billion according to consensus estimates, representing a rise of about 1% from the previous year, while earnings are projected to reach around $51 per share, which is roughly unchanged from last year. Although revenues are expected to be supported by relatively stable same-store sales and ongoing expansion of stores in both domestic and international markets, margins may experience pressure due to the impact of increased inventory shrink, a higher proportion of commercial sales, which generally yield lower margins, and the costs associated with new distribution center startups. The company currently holds a market capitalization of $71 billion. Over the past twelve months, revenue was $19 billion, while the company was operationally profitable, with $3.7 billion in operating profits and net income amounting to $2.6 billion. Much will hinge on how the results compare to expectations and consensus, but understanding historical trends could give an advantage to those trading based on events.
There are two primary strategies for this: either grasp the historical probabilities and position yourself before the earnings release, or examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings and adjust your position based on that information after the earnings release. If you are looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio offers an alternative that has outperformed the S&P 500, generating returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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AutoZone’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There have been 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 35% of the time.
- Nonetheless, this percentage drops to 25% when considering data from the past 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 7 positive returns is 3.7%, while the median of the 13 negative returns is -2.8%
Further data regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
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A relatively lower-risk approach (although potentially ineffective if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify pairs that exhibit the highest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D display the strongest correlation, a trader might choose to position themselves “long” for the next 5 days assuming the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data derived from both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) histories. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
AZO Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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