Ethereum (ETH) has been showing renewed bullish momentum after a recent reset, with traders closely watching technical indicators and on-chain data for signs of a potential breakout. Since late September, ETH has surged from around $3,800 to over $4,400, signaling that demand for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency remains strong. Analysts now highlight Ethereum’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and declining exchange reserves as key factors that could push prices toward $5,000 in the coming weeks.
Ethereum Recovers After a Healthy Reset
According to recent data from CryptoQuant and Binance, Ethereum went through a market “reset” during the latter half of September. The token initially tested lows near $3,800–$3,900, but these levels quickly acted as support, allowing for a gradual rebound into the mid $4,000 range. Analysts describe this reset as healthy, indicating that ETH absorbed short-term selling pressure without triggering a larger market correction.
The SOPR metric, which measures profit-taking activity, remained mostly in a neutral zone of 0.98–1.03. This suggests that any minor sell-offs were balanced by new buying, preventing broad capitulation. As Arab Chain from CryptoQuant notes, these short-lived dips were absorbed by strong inflows, creating a foundation for continued upside.
SOPR Signals Strong Buying Pressure
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is a key on-chain indicator that tracks whether investors are selling at a profit or a loss. A SOPR above 1.0 generally indicates that sellers are realizing gains but not in excessive volumes, whereas a value below 1.0 signals losses. For Ethereum, SOPR has fluctuated around 1.0, with occasional spikes above, showing that short-term profit-taking is being met by robust buying interest.
This pattern suggests that ETH’s local bottom around $3,800–$3,900 is holding firm, and buyers continue to step in before prices can drop significantly. Analysts believe that as long as SOPR stays above 1.0, ETH could sustain upward momentum toward the $5,000 mark.
Reaccumulation Supports Upside Momentum
Ethereum is currently showing signs of reaccumulation, with investors gradually increasing their holdings. The support level at $4,000 has proven critical, acting as a base for buyers to accumulate ETH without letting prices slide. Arab Chain notes that a sustained break above $4,500 would consolidate demand momentum and set the stage for higher targets. Conversely, a drop below $4,000 with SOPR falling under 1.0 could indicate that sellers are taking control, which may trigger a short-term correction.
The combination of SOPR stability and strong support levels gives ETH a bullish technical outlook, suggesting that the current trend could extend well into Q4 2025.
Exchange Reserves Hit Multi-Year Lows
On-chain data also shows a continued decline in Ethereum reserves on major exchanges. Increasingly, investors are withdrawing ETH for self-custody or staking, which reduces the circulating supply available for trading. This trend points to growing confidence in Ethereum’s long-term prospects and limits the likelihood of sudden sell-offs.
Whale behavior further reinforces the bullish case. Recent reports indicate that large holders accumulated up to $1.73 billion worth of ETH, pushing exchange balances to a nine-year low. Reduced liquidity on exchanges combined with strong buying demand creates conditions favorable for upward price pressure.
Technical Indicators Suggest Further Gains
From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started to signal bullish momentum. While the RSI remains below extreme overbought levels, it indicates that ETH has room to grow before entering overextended territory. Analysts highlight that this, coupled with the SOPR and declining exchange reserves, sets the stage for potential appreciation toward $5,000.
Some technical models even suggest that in a highly bullish scenario, Ethereum could test levels as high as $8,000, though more conservative estimates place $5,000 as a near-term target based on current demand dynamics and market structure.
Key Levels to Watch
For traders, several price levels are critical. The $4,000 support zone must hold to maintain bullish momentum. The $4,500 range represents a breakout trigger, where sustained closes could accelerate the rally. Resistance near $5,000 is the next major psychological and technical barrier, while SOPR and RSI indicators should be monitored closely to gauge short-term buying strength.
Additionally, ETH’s broader market context — including institutional inflows, staking activity, and macroeconomic factors such as the US dollar trend — may influence the speed and sustainability of the move.
Conclusion: Ethereum Eyes $5,000
Ethereum’s recent rebound from $3,800, strong SOPR signals, declining exchange reserves, and supportive technical indicators point to a potential breakout toward $5,000. While minor pullbacks may occur, the current setup favors buyers, particularly if ETH maintains above key support levels. Traders and investors will be watching closely to see if Ethereum can sustain this momentum into Q4 2025 and possibly challenge new all-time highs.
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