The cryptocurrency market is on high alert today as nearly $5 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options approach expiration on Deribit. The settlement, scheduled for November 14 at 8:00 UTC, is expected to influence short-term price action for both major assets as traders adjust positions around their strike levels.
Although today’s expiration is slightly lower than last week’s $5.4 billion event, the overall stakes appear higher. Market sentiment has weakened over the past several days, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading close to sensitive price points that could respond sharply to derivatives positioning.
As options reach their final hours, analysts warn that price movement is likely to gravitate toward their maximum pain points — the levels where the highest number of option holders stand to incur losses. This dynamic has been observed repeatedly across previous expiries and tends to intensify as expiration approaches.
Bitcoin Options Show Strong Interest Despite Price Weakness
Bitcoin traders are navigating the expiry with a mix of caution and optimism. The largest cryptocurrency briefly fell below $100,000 for the second time this week, adding tension to the market during a highly leveraged event window. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $99,092, marking a nearly 3% decline during the past 24 hours.
Data from Deribit indicates that the maximum pain level sits at $105,000. This means traders holding the highest volume of open option contracts would lose the most money if Bitcoin settled at that level by expiration. Historically, prices often move toward the maximum pain region due to market maker hedging and position balancing.
Open interest distribution shows strong activity surrounding the $95,000 and $100,000 put contracts, which act as short-term protective regions for downside risk. Meanwhile, heavy concentration sits around the $108,000 and $111,000 call contracts, creating equally important pressure points should price attempt recovery.
The Put-to-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 0.63 — indicating that call options outnumber put options. Generally, a lower PCR signals bullish sentiment, with more traders betting on upward movement rather than hedging against declines. As expiration nears, this optimism battles the current negative price action, making the market’s reaction highly unpredictable.
Total open interest for Bitcoin options is 40,846 contracts, with 25,121 calls and 15,725 puts. The notional value exceeds $4.04 billion, showing just how significant today’s expiry is to the wider market environment.
Ethereum Options Expiry Highlights Bullish Positioning Under Pressure
Ethereum’s options expiry carries a lower notional value than Bitcoin’s, but still commands significant attention. More than $730 million in ETH options are set to expire today, with the asset trading near $3,224 heading into settlement.
The maximum pain level for Ethereum sits close to $3,500. If price gravitates toward this level, traders holding out-of-the-money positions could see heavy losses, while many call sellers would benefit. The Put-to-Call Ratio currently sits at 0.64 — slightly above Bitcoin’s but still signaling optimism, as calls remain far higher than puts.
The positioning breakdown shows:
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Call options: 142,333
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Put options: 90,515
This represents more than a 1.5x difference in favor of calls, reflecting a strong belief among traders that Ethereum could see higher prices — if the market environment stabilizes.
Despite the optimistic structure, Ethereum’s price action has weakened in recent days, creating friction between derivatives positioning and spot performance. Today’s options expiry will test whether that bullish confidence was warranted or prematurely optimistic.
Macro Conditions Amplify Market Sensitivity
The scheduled expiry is not happening in isolation. The broader market is reacting to major global events, including the recently resolved 43-day US government shutdown. Analysts at Greeks.live note that during the shutdown, several key economic reports were not released, forcing analysts to rely heavily on estimates.
This backlog has increased the stakes for upcoming macroeconomic announcements, particularly inflation readings. With limited clarity on the economic environment, traders across crypto and traditional markets are operating with elevated uncertainty.
The December Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is now viewed as the defining macro event ahead. It comes at a moment of heightened geopolitical tension and growing investment in artificial intelligence sectors, both of which could influence risk asset flows.
Greeks.live also reports that open interest and trading volume continue rising in the crypto options market — particularly in out-of-the-money contracts. This uptrend shows widening disagreement among traders about where the market heads next, reflected in modest increases across implied volatility curves.
Block trades have grown more active, skew is shifting toward equilibrium, and the short-term volatility curve has become fragmented. Together, these signals point toward a market preparing for significant movement rather than stability.
What Traders Should Expect After the Expiry
While volatility is likely during the hours surrounding today’s expiration, conditions historically tend to calm afterward as traders rebalance portfolios to match the new pricing landscape. Once the expiry pressure clears, the market often enters a phase in which spot data, macroeconomic signals, and sentiment take priority over derivative positioning.
However, the extreme scale of open interest today means the immediate aftermath could still produce sudden moves if price strays far from key strike levels and forces rapid hedging.
In the short term, today’s expiry represents a defining moment for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. If either asset drifts toward maximum pain territory, price stabilization could occur. If aggressive positioning forces deviation in either direction, volatility could expand quickly.
Whichever direction the market takes, traders should prepare for fast reactions and shifting liquidity throughout the expiration window — followed by a reset period as the market moves to a new equilibrium.
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