Bitcoin is once again under heavy selling pressure, and this time the decline is picking up momentum instead of slowing down. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency fell toward $95,000 this week, triggering a wave of concern across the market. Traders in both crypto and equities shifted rapidly into risk-off mode as confidence weakened and expectations for supportive economic policies faded.
Bitcoin is now on track to close its third consecutive week in the red. If that happens, it would mark the longest losing streak since early autumn, highlighting a dramatic reversal from the excitement that swept the market just weeks ago.
From October’s optimism to November’s caution
Bitcoin’s climb in October set historic records and drove widespread enthusiasm as the asset reached an all-time high near $126,330. After that peak, however, the trend flipped sharply. Tens of thousands of dollars have been wiped from Bitcoin’s price in a short period, creating a pattern that technical traders view as particularly troubling.
This month’s weekly chart shows three large, consecutive red candles — a formation often referred to as “three black crows.” This pattern is usually associated with strong bearish conditions and indicates that selling pressure continues even when brief opportunities to recover appear. According to chart specialists, the formation suggests that market sentiment is shifting from confidence to caution.
The latest breakdown has also confirmed a rising-wedge reversal — a structure that historically leads to sharp declines once support gives way. When analysts calculate the wedge’s depth and apply standard price projection methods, the possible downside target lies near $62,600. That marks roughly a 35% drop from current levels if bearish momentum continues.
Momentum indicators reinforce the concern. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) peaked before Bitcoin reached its record high. This signaled weakness building beneath the surface well ahead of the pullback and now forms a clear bearish divergence.
The macro outlook shifts — and crypto reacts
While technical factors have shaped the chart, the sell-off is not purely driven by market structure. Bitcoin’s downturn has intensified alongside a major shift in economic expectations.
Just weeks ago, most traders anticipated that the U.S. Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates in December — a move that typically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin. But those expectations have changed dramatically. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a December rate cut has fallen from around 90% in late October to about 54% now.
That shift follows ongoing worries about inflation and recent comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials stressing the need for caution rather than immediate policy easing. With rate cuts becoming less likely, investors have pulled back from assets that rely on a favorable liquidity environment.
The effects are visible across multiple markets:
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Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen from nearly $100 billion to around $60 billion
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A major liquidation event earlier this month forced leveraged traders out of their positions
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs are now reporting continued outflows rather than inflows
Institutional investors who had been adding exposure through ETFs have temporarily stepped back, and the slowdown has added more pressure to the market.
On-chain data shows whales retreating
Another critical factor behind the downturn comes from blockchain activity. Large Bitcoin holders — commonly referred to as whales — aggressively accumulated during earlier phases of the cycle. However, recent data shows this cohort reducing their holdings rather than increasing them.
Multiple on-chain measures support this trend:
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Large-wallet selling pressure has increased
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Accumulation addresses have slowed
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Net outflows from whale wallets suggest repositioning rather than continued holding
At the same time, trader sentiment has swung sharply lower. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is now approaching deep fear territory. Many traders are choosing to stay on the sidelines rather than attempt to buy the dip.
Analysts warn that whale withdrawal during corrections often accelerates selling pressure — especially when combined with reduced institutional demand.
Can bulls invalidate the bearish outlook?
Despite the current market structure, analysts are not ruling out the possibility of recovery — but they agree that Bitcoin must reclaim key price levels to shift the trend.
According to several market strategists, Bitcoin would need to rise decisively above the mid-$100,000 range to reduce the likelihood of another decline. A rebound above $110,000 would be the first technical sign that bearish momentum is weakening. Only then would a retest of the all-time high near $126,330 become realistic again.
Until that reclaim occurs, traders generally agree that caution remains necessary. The dominant trend points downward, and many analysts flag the mid-$60,000 region as a potential area where stronger support might finally appear — especially if selling intensifies.
What traders should take away from the current trend
Bitcoin has gone through several harsh corrections over the years, and each time certain patterns emerge. A rapid change in sentiment, withdrawals from leveraged markets, ETF outflows, shifting macro expectations, and reduced whale accumulation are phenomena that have preceded extended downtrends in previous cycles.
However, the market has also recovered from each one of those declines.
Whether the current downturn marks an extended retracement phase or a setup for a longer-term stabilization remains unknown. But analysts agree on one point: until Bitcoin reclaims major price levels and liquidity returns, bearish pressure is likely to continue.
For now, traders face a market in which caution outweighs enthusiasm and where patience may play a larger role than aggressive short-term positioning.
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