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Shares of the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) surged to $51.27 on November 28, 2025, capping a 70% rally from $30 in late May. Yet retail sentiment on Reddit has turned sharply bearish, with investors actively discussing put option strategies rather than celebrating gains. The disconnect reflects deep skepticism about silver’s ability to sustain all-time highs, driven by historical precedent and concerns about social media-fueled momentum.
Reddit’s r/StockMarket lit up with contrarian positioning in late November. One post titled “Am I crazy for wanting to buy put leaps on SLV?” drew 38 comments as investors debated bearish strategies despite the ETF trading near record levels. The author wrote: “when it crashed in 2011, it lost 50% in 2 years around April/May 2013. Then the bottom finally came 4.75 years later around Dec of 15 for a 72% decline from the ATH.” The post continued with specific timing concerns: “I’m thinking of buying put leaps on SLV for Jan 2028 at the $40 strike. They are going for about $4 right now.”
Am I crazy for wanting to buy put leaps on SLV?
by
u/Coffee-and-puts in
StockMarket
Why Investors Are Betting Against the Rally
The bearish case centers on silver’s historical inability to hold breakouts and the role of retail enthusiasm in the current move. Three concerns dominate discussion:
- Silver crashed 72% over five years following its 2011 peak, taking until 2020 to recover
- October 2025 saw three separate days with volume exceeding 80 million shares, more than quadruple normal activity, suggesting institutional distribution
- The safe-haven narrative is questioned, with the Reddit post noting “when things go caputs, silver looks to also go caputs”
The put strategy gaining traction involves buying January 2028 $40 puts for approximately $4, targeting a 50% decline to $25.60 that would generate returns of 3.5x. This mirrors the 2011-2013 pattern when SLV lost half its value in two years.
Silver Outperforms Gold, But Skepticism Persists
SLV’s 70% six-month gain dwarfed the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), which rose just 6.4% over the same period. The Sprott Physical Silver Trust (NYSE: PSLV) tracked SLV almost identically with a 21% gain, confirming the rally is silver-specific rather than ETF-driven. Trading volume remains elevated at 41 million shares, but investors view this as climactic rather than constructive. For now, the sentiment paradox persists: prices at record highs, conviction at multi-month lows.