Macro update
US equities hold steady:
US stocks finished broadly unchanged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 inching higher as confidence in a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut next week remained steady, though a 1.4% decline in Amazon capped wider market gains.
Mixed labour-market signals:
Jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a three-year low, while a Chicago Fed model suggested unemployment stayed close to 4.4%.
Rate-cut expectations firm:
Markets now price an 87% probability of a 25bp move in December as the delayed payrolls report leaves investors relying on secondary data.
Broader sentiment stays constructive:
A softer dollar and rising confidence in Fed easing supported the market tone as traders awaited the delayed personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation release and next week’s policy decision.
Dow Jones rally is ongoing
The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains on an upward trajectory and flirts with the late October high at 48,040 which acts as short-term resistance.
If overcome, the November record high at 48,431 will be back in the frame.
Minor support sits at the 47,750 late November high.