Key Takeaways
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Bitcoin volatility may fall further in 2026, according to Bitwise.
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The firm said Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana are all expected to reach new all-time highs in the new year.
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Short-term risks remain for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin could become less volatile than high-growth U.S. technology stocks, such as Nvidia, by 2026, while both Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to reach new record highs, according to crypto asset manager Bitwise, which cited growing institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
In a series of predictions released this week, Bitwise stated that a maturing market structure and broader participation from long-term investors could significantly strengthen the cryptocurrency industry.
Bitwise said Bitcoin’s volatility is expected to decline further in 2026, potentially dropping below that of Nvidia, one of the most actively traded and volatile stocks in the U.S. equity market.
The firm argued that Bitcoin’s investor base is evolving, with a rising share of ownership held by institutions and long-term allocators rather than retail traders.
That shift, Bitwise said, could dampen the sharp price swings that have historically defined the cryptocurrency.
“For all of 2025, Bitcoin has been less volatile than Nvidia,” Bitwise wrote. “Zoom out, and you’ll find that Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily declined over the past 10 years.”
Bitwise also said Bitcoin’s correlation with equities is likely to weaken.
Using rolling 30-day correlations, the firm noted Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has rarely exceeded 0.50.
“We expect crypto-specific factors like regulatory progress and institutional adoption to drive performance,” Bitwise said, adding that this could allow Bitcoin to rise even if equity markets face pressure.
Beyond Bitcoin, Bitwise predicted that Ethereum and Solana will set new all-time highs in 2026, provided U.S. lawmakers pass the proposed CLARITY Act.
The firm said stablecoins and tokenized financial assets are “megatrends,” with Ethereum and Solana positioned as major beneficiaries.
This is expected to coincide with U.S. regulators approving a wave of new products.
Bitwise projected that more than 100 crypto-linked exchange-traded funds could launch in the U.S. after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) published generic listing standards in late 2025.
Despite Bitwise’s longer-term optimism, some analysts remain cautious in the near term.
Valdrin Tahiri, an analyst at CCN, said Bitcoin’s technical structure remains bearish.
According to Tahiri, Bitcoin has entered the fifth and final wave of a corrective decline after breaking down from an ascending parallel channel.
“If the count is accurate, the Bitcoin price will fall to the $70,000–$72,000 range to complete its correction,” Tahiri said, adding that a significant bounce could follow once that move is complete.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at around $87,950, down nearly 5% over the past week.
However, please note that market conditions remain volatile, and price projections are subject to change.
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