VanEck also analyzed on-chain data tied to Bitcoin holder behavior. Medium-term cohorts showed notable declines in balance across the 1–2-year, 2–3-year, and 3–5-year age bands.
By contrast, the oldest holders showed limited change, with balances above 5 years largely stable.
When viewed broadly, coins unmoved for more than six months declined by about 190 basis points. Still, tokens held for over 10 years increased slightly, suggesting long-term conviction remained intact. VanEck said the data points to selling by short- and medium-term participants rather than veteran holders.
The analysts attributed the hashrate drop partly to the shutdown of about 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity in China. They added that rising AI-related power demand could displace up to 10% of Bitcoin’s hashrate. Even so, Sigel and Bush estimated that at least 13 countries now support Bitcoin mining, including Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, the UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya, and Japan.