VanEck released a report Monday highlighting a 4% decline in the Bitcoin network hash rate, the steepest drop since April 2024, which the firm identified as a potential signal for a market bottom as bitcoin treasury companies begin to scoop up cheaper coins.
The firm highlighted that the 30-day moving average for Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4% following a peak in early November. In the note, authored by Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel, the VanEck senior analyst and head of digital asset research attribute this decline partly to government scrutiny in Xinjiang, China, which forced the shutdown of 1.3 gigawatts of capacity. This crackdown impacted approximately 400,000 mining machines, potentially meaning the removal of up to 10% of the network’s total hashrate.
The report detailed worsening economics for bitcoin miners as a driver for the hashrate decline. The breakeven electricity price for an S19 XP mining machine dropped to $0.077/kWh in December 2025 from roughly $0.12 a year prior.
“While profitability for miners has been poor recently, many entities continue to mine despite periods of poor economics because they believe in Bitcoin’s future. To support the long-term hash rate of the Bitcoin network, we believe up to 13 nations are mining with support from their central governments,” the note reads.
VanEck’s research indicated that such “miner capitulation” often precedes positive price performance. The firm found that when hashrate growth is negative over a 90-day period, bitcoin returns over the subsequent 180 days averaged 72%. This compares to an average return of 48% during periods when the hash rate is growing.
While the network contraction suggested stress among miners, the analysts noted that, as the price of bitcoin fell 9% in the last 30 days, corporate treasuries significantly increased their accumulation of the digital asset.
Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) utilized the price dip to accumulate more bitcoin, adding 42,000 BTC between mid-November and mid-December and marking their largest monthly accumulation since July 2025.
This buying activity contrasted with investors in bitcoin exchange-traded products, who reduced their holdings by 1.308 million BTC over the same period.
Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) led the corporate accumulation, acquiring 29,400 BTC using proceeds from common stock issuance.
Japanese firm Metaplanet (TSE: 3350) also moved to expand its holdings, scheduling a shareholder vote for December 22 to approve preferred stock issuance for bitcoin purchases.
Further, on-chain data revealed a divergence in behavior between different cohorts of bitcoin holders.