During the crypto bull market of 2025, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) seemed unstoppable, fueling bold predictions that it would reach $150,000, $250,000, or even higher by year’s end. Analysts like Tom Lee from Fundstrat projected $200,000 to $250,000. Cathie Wood from ARK Invest still forecasts Bitcoin hitting $1.2 million by 2030. A rising tide can make even fools look like geniuses, let alone smart, savvy investors. But as Warren Buffett noted, it’s only when the tide goes out that you see who is swimming naked.
After briefly hitting $126,000 in October, Bitcoin began to pull back, only to plummet during the October flash crash that saw $19 billion in leverage liquidated. Prices kept falling afterward, and today, Bitcoin stands at about $89,450, just 6% above the low of $84,400 hit on Dec. 18 (there was one brief blip on Dec. 24, when it plunged to $24,000 on Binance‘s BTC/USD1 pair before rebounding).
Although some bull cases suggest Bitcoin can rally to around $150,000 in 2026, a more pervasive sentiment holds that it hasn’t finished falling yet. So will Bitcoin claw its way back to $100,000, let alone go higher?
Bear Outlooks Highlight Downside Risks
Citigroup outlines a bear case with Bitcoin dropping to $78,500 in 2026, citing potential global recession impacting risk assets (its bull case says it can go to $143,000). Meanwhile, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards warns of prices below $50,000 by 2028 if quantum-resistant upgrades aren’t implemented soon. Bloomberg Intelligence‘s Mike McGlone, however, forecasts a severe reversion, with Bitcoin potentially crashing all the way down to $10,000 this year, due to increasing crypto competition and a reversion to the mean from speculative highs.
These downside views align with historical cycle corrections and new, emerging threats. Citigroup’s target reflects plausible macro slowdowns pressuring leveraged positions, similar to 2025’s deleveraging events. Edwards’ quantum warning addresses a technical vulnerability, though community upgrades could address it before any severe impacts materialize. McGlone’s $10,000 call mirrors past bear markets but may underestimate Bitcoin’s maturity since those earlier collapses, including over $100 billion in exchange-traded fund (ETF) assets and corporate holdings.
Of course, extreme drops remain possible in a recessionary environment but face resistance from halving-induced scarcity and ongoing adoption.
Prospects for Reaching $100,000 by End of 2026
From its current level around $89,450, reclaiming $100,000 requires only modest upside of about 12%, achievable in even moderately bullish conditions. Citigroup recognizes this, and its base case targets $143,000 by late 2026, with a bull scenario at $189,000, supported by ETF inflows and continued regulatory progress. Other forecasts by Bernstein and Standard Chartered, for instance, range from $150,000 to much higher, by assuming institutional demand is sustained.
The probability of higher prices is substantial, given favorable macroeconomic conditions, renewed ETF buying, and potential clarity from legislation such as the proposed Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act of 2025. However, continued outflows or tightened liquidity could delay any recovery. Analysis of previous Bitcoin cycles suggests 2026 may be a year of consolidation before it exhibits any real renewed strength, making $100,000 a realistic near-term milestone en route to higher levels.
Key Takeaway
Regardless of 2026’s price action, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory appears positive, anchored in its capped 21 million supply for inherent scarcity. Institutional adoption has deepened, with spot ETFs amassing billions in inflows, and corporate treasuries expanding their holdings. Government engagement is also growing, including the creation of a strategic reserve and bipartisan regulatory efforts.
These structural supports position Bitcoin as a maturing asset class amid an evolving global finance environment, one with a long-term bright future no matter what its price is at the end of the year.