Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) just broke through $90,000 after more than a month of failed attempts. Bitcoin spent December locked between $86,000 and $90,000, testing resistance repeatedly without breaking through. Holiday trading volumes dropped to $30-40 billion, well below levels needed to sustain breakouts, as institutional capital sat on the sidelines.
Then early January changed the setup. Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $471 million on January 2—the second-highest daily inflow since mid-November—and volume returned as institutions re-entered the market. The breakout finally had the backing it needed—and the $90,000 level that repeatedly rejected price throughout December finally gave way on January 3, with BTC briefly testing $95,000, marking a new yearly high.
But breaking $90K doesn’t guarantee $100K. Bitcoin now trades around $92,000-$94,000, testing whether this move has legs or runs out of steam at the next resistance zone. The coming weeks will determine if BTC clears $95,000 and makes a run at six figures or pulls back to retest the $90K support.
Why Bitcoin Couldn’t Break $90K in December
Three forces kept Bitcoin pinned below $90,000 throughout December, creating a ceiling that held despite multiple attempts.
Profit-Taking Zone
The $90,000 level represents a major profit-taking zone for investors who accumulated Bitcoin in the $60,000-$70,000 range. With gains of 30-50%, many locked in profits, creating persistent sell pressure. This overhead supply capped each rally as sellers stepped in, resulting in a self-reinforcing ceiling that proved difficult to overcome.
Options Wall
Significant open interest in call options between $90,000 and $95,000 created a hedging dynamic where dealers sold spot Bitcoin to remain delta-neutral, effectively reinforcing resistance. Until these options expired or were breached with substantial volume, they acted as a mechanical ceiling.
Macro Fog
Year-end positioning was complete, but the Federal Reserve’s 2026 policy stance was unclear. The Bank of Japan signaled potential hawkish moves and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East added uncertainty. These factors kept institutional buyers cautious. Elevated funding rates on derivatives platforms indicated a crowded long trade, raising the risk of a liquidation cascade if the Bitcoin price dropped below key support levels.
The $90,000 Breakout: What Changed for Bitcoin in January?
After struggling through December, Bitcoin finally broke through in early January. Here are the three factors that shifted the setup.
Return of Institutional Capital
With the holiday season over, institutional capital began flowing back into crypto. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which lost $4.57 billion over November-December combined, started attracting fresh allocations. On January 2, the first trading day of 2026, ETFs pulled in $471 million in net inflows—marking the second-highest daily inflow since mid-November. This influx absorbed sell pressure at $90,000 and provided the volume needed for a breakout.
Volume Surge
Daily trading volume increased substantially for the first time in weeks, confirming the breakout was supported by real participation. After holiday volumes dropped to $30-40 billion in late December, early January saw renewed activity as institutions re-entered. Trading volume exceeded $5 billion on January 2, the highest since December 18.
Options Dynamics Shift
As BTC approached $95,000, the options market flipped from resistance to potential fuel. Dealers who sold calls at $94,000-$95,000 were forced to buy spot BTC to hedge their exposure—a phenomenon known as a “gamma squeeze.” This created a feedback loop of buying that pushed BTC higher.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Reach $100K in January?
Bitcoin broke $90K, but that’s just the first hurdle. Three scenarios could play out over the next two weeks, depending on how price interacts with key levels and which catalysts unfold.
Bullish Prediction: Breakout to $95K-$100K
If fresh capital continues entering the market, Bitcoin could break cleanly through $95,000 on strong volume. That move would trigger a gamma squeeze as dealers are forced to buy spot BTC to hedge short call exposure, potentially sparking a FOMO-driven rally to $100,000. Tax-loss selling is behind us, and institutional Q1 allocations could provide the fuel.
Three catalysts support this path. ETF inflows exceeding $500 million weekly would confirm institutional demand remains strong—the January 2 inflows of $471 million suggest this trend may be resuming. The Trump administration’s first anniversary on January 20 could spark renewed focus on pro-crypto policy achievements. High-profile bullish forecasts like Citigroup’s $143,000 target can create retail and institutional FOMO. A clean break above $95,000 with volume opens the door back to six figures.
Base Prediction: Consolidation at $88K-$94K
Bitcoin could settle into a new range if trading volume remains inconsistent and macroeconomic uncertainty persists. BTC would consolidate between $88,000 and $94,000, frustrating both bulls and bears while extending the consolidation phase until clearer macro signals emerge.
Traders would adopt a wait-and-see approach, and volatility could remain suppressed. In this scenario, $88,000 becomes the first support test—a break below would signal the breakout failed and increase liquidation risk given elevated funding rates.
Bearish Prediction: Breakdown to $80K-$85K
If elevated funding rates trigger a wave of liquidations, Bitcoin could break below the $88,000 support and test the $85,000 zone, potentially dropping to $80,000. The crowded long positioning makes this a real risk if momentum turns against the bulls.
Three catalysts could accelerate the breakdown. Recession warnings from weak jobs data or earnings misses could spook risk markets—Bitcoin still trades like a high-beta asset vulnerable to macro shocks. A hawkish Fed signaling that rate cuts are off the table for Q1 or Q2 would dampen risk appetite, and a strong dollar with rising yields would be headwinds. Exchange hacks or regulatory crackdowns—especially in the U.S. or EU—could trigger panic selling. A break below $85,000 is where bulls lose control, likely driving price toward $80,000.
Breakout Confirmed, But $100K Not Guaranteed
Bitcoin broke through $90,000 after more than 30 days of failed attempts. January brings fresh capital—marking the end of tax-loss selling and the start of institutional Q1 allocations—but the path to $100,000 isn’t guaranteed. If BTC holds above $90,000 and breaks $95,000 with volume, a move to $100,000 is likely. Failure to sustain momentum could lead to extended consolidation—or worse, a breakdown toward $80,000-$85,000.
The next few weeks will determine whether BTC remains stuck or finally clears the $100,000 hurdle. The stalemate is over as Bitcoin surged, but the question remains whether it can keep moving or stalls at the next resistance. January will determine whether Bitcoin’s six-figure milestone becomes reality or remains just out of reach.