Key Takeaways
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Bitcoin could face the “dump of a lifetime” if the Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs illegal, says a popular commentator.
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Prediction markets show a 73% probability that the Supreme Court will strike down the tariffs.
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Market reactions are split.
A famed crypto commentator has warned that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could face the “dump of a lifetime” if U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court, as prediction markets increasingly price in that outcome.
The warning comes as Trump himself has described the potential overturning of his tariffs as a “complete mess,” stating it would be “almost impossible” for the U.S. to repay.
A majority of traders on Polymarket believe that Trump’s tariffs could be reversed by the Supreme Court.
The prediction platform showed traders assigning a 73% probability that the Supreme Court would rule the tariffs illegal.
On X, popular Bitcoin commentator “The Bitcoin Therapist” cautioned followers to “brace for the dump of a lifetime.”
Reactions among traders were strong and mixed.
One X user noted the apparent contradiction in market behavior: “The market is so bipolar. Crashes when tariffs are added, and now it’s supposed to crash if they get removed?”
Another argued the opposite outcome could occur, while William Watson of Rise Up Media highlighted the unpredictability:
“I feel like there’s a strong case for either scenario. Illegal = businesses get reimbursed and profit margins improve and they can hire more people. Market pumps. But also = confusion across all global trade for a few weeks. Market dumps.”
When Trump first announced his sweeping global tariffs in April last year, both the crypto market and broader financial industry reacted quickly.
Equity markets fell, while Bitcoin and Ethereum prices declined as risk-averse traders sought less volatile assets.
Some crypto traders now argue that the opposite could happen if the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal.
They suggest that overturning the levies could improve U.S. business profit margins, encourage hiring, and potentially trigger a market rally—including in BTC.
Trump has repeatedly warned that overturning his tariffs would create logistical and financial chaos.
In a social media post, he wrote: “WE’RE SCREWED” if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, noting that reimbursing businesses and foreign governments could take years.
The sweeping tariffs, first announced by Trump in April last year, are being challenged by a coalition of 12 U.S. states and small businesses who argue the president exceeded his authority.
During November hearings, justices expressed skepticism over the administration’s legal rationale.
On Tuesday, Trump also imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, a move that has drawn threats of retaliation from Beijing.
Bitcoin’s price has already shown volatility amid geopolitical tensions.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin had risen just above $95,000, yet analysts note resistance to a clean $100,000 breakout.
Victor Olanrewaju, a CCN analyst, highlighted that institutional accumulation of Bitcoin remains robust. Although tensions over Iran could complicate the outlook.
“As that demand continues, it can help tighten available supply and support Bitcoin’s price uptrend during pullbacks,” he wrote in a recent report.
However, Olanrewaju said that if bullish indicators hold, Bitcoin could break above the upper resistance of $98,111, potentially climbing to $108,921.
With so many macro factors at play, many risks remain for Bitcoin.
“If geopolitics escalate sharply and trigger a broad risk-off move, BTC could drop quickly toward $91,436. If selling accelerates from there, the coin could also lose the $87,000 support,” he wrote.
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