Warren Buffett said America's 'incredible period' was coming to an end. Was he right?

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Warren Buffett speaks to the press as he arrives at the 2019 annual shareholders meeting in Omaha, Nebraska

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According to the world’s most famous investor, the U.S. economy’s “incredible period” would come to an end in 2023. He said that even his own company, Berkshire Hathaway, wouldn’t be immune.

“The majority of our businesses will report lower earnings this year than last year,” Buffett cautioned at Berkshire’s annual meeting in 2023 (1).

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That was a somewhat surprising statement from a man who has famously been ultra-bullish on the U.S. economy.

Persistently high inflation and interest rates and the ongoing banking crisis made Buffett much more concerned about investment gains. His late business partner, Charlie Munger, echoed this sentiment at the time, saying “Get used to making less.”

Yet despite his warnings, the S&P 500 has surged more than 70% since January 1, 2023 (2), suggesting that America’s biggest businesses have only grown bigger.

And now, the famed “Warren Buffett Indicator” (3), comparing the U.S. stock market to the U.S. economy, has surged above 230% (4). Buffett once warned that if the ratio approaches 200%, investors were “playing with fire” — given it indicates stock valuations are rising significantly faster than GDP (5).

As we begin 2026, the question is: was Buffett right about his economic predictions?

Portfolio shockproofing

First and foremost, it’s worth understanding why the stock market has been tearing up the page since Buffett’s ominous 2023 warnings. According to a recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article (6), “Anxiety has given way to hope on Wall Street.”

The stock market’s continued gains seem to be mostly driven by investor optimism and innovation in tech — particularly AI.

The WSJ notes that job growth is slowing alongside rising unemployment. Those are two typical indicators of a slumping U.S. economy. Yet the optimism around tech, especially with regards to Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta (formerly Facebook), is spurring stocks up and up.

There are valid fears over the latest market boom being yet another bubble, and investors looking for a more diversified portfolio should consider investing in other industries, too.

“Massive tech behemoths are dominating the headlines and all the investment flows and analysis, but other companies are also executing,” Michael Antonelli, a market strategist at Baird, told the WSJ.

So too are other geographies. For instance, Canada’s Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), has grown double-digits since last year (7). It’s largely driven by a sector entirely different from that of the U.S. though: where tech pushes the American market, energy leads the pack in Canada.

Read More: Approaching retirement with no savings? Don’t panic, you’re not alone. Here are 6 easy ways you can catch up (and fast)

Invest in international stocks

Diversifying by investing in international stocks is a solid way to protect your investments from local market conditions.

With Robinhood — a commission-free investing app — you have access to over 650 global stocks through American Depository Receipts (ADRs). It’s a simple and convenient way to invest in a wide variety of stocks, ETFs and options.

Robinhood offers a range of account types with no account minimums, making it easy for anyone to start investing in the global stock market, regardless of how much (or how little) they have to spend.

New Robinhood customers can even get a free stock once they sign up and link their bank account to the app.

Your stock reward can range from $5 to $200, and you get to pick the actual stock you receive from top American companies.

Diversify by investing in real estate

Beyond companies in different sectors and geographies, it may also be worth considering adding alternative assets to your portfolio.

When it comes to shockproof investments, real estate is a great option that has long been touted for its inflation-hedging benefits.

Rental properties have long been a proven source of steady, passive income for high-net-worth investors. It’s no wonder that real estate accounts for nearly 25% of the typical family office portfolio (8). However, the time, effort, and costs involved in managing and maintaining multiple properties prevent many from investing. So unless you’re a hedge fund titan or an oil baron, you’ve been shut out of one of the most profitable corners of the market.

That’s where mogul comes in. This real estate investment platform offers fractional ownership in blue-chip rental properties, which gives investors monthly rental income, real-time appreciation and tax benefits — without the need for a hefty down payment or 3 A.M. tenant calls.

Founded by former Goldman Sachs real estate investors, the mogul team hand-picks the top 1% of single-family rental homes nationwide for you. Simply put, you can invest in institutional quality offerings for a fraction of the usual cost.

Each property undergoes a vetting process, requiring a minimum 12% return even in downside scenarios. Across the board, the platform features an average annual IRR of 18.8%. Their cash-on-cash yields, meanwhile, average between 10 to 12% annually. Offerings often sell out in under three hours, with investments typically ranging between $15,000 and $40,000 per property.

Every investment is secured by real assets, not dependent on the platform’s viability. Each property is held in a standalone Propco LLC, so investors own the property — not the platform. Blockchain-based fractionalization adds a layer of safety, ensuring a permanent, verifiable record of each stake.

Getting started is a quick and easy process. You can sign up for an account and then browse available properties. Once you verify your information with their team, you can invest like a mogul in just a few clicks.

An additional way to protect yourself from a potential market correction is by making sure you have consistent income, regardless of market conditions.

Income through rental real estate can be an attractive way to earn steady checks — but the upfront investment required to be a landlord can make it feel impossible

So, if you aren’t ready to jump into home ownership (financially or otherwise), there are platforms like Arrived that let you buy stakes in rental properties, earn dividends, and skip the responsibilities of property management.

Backed by world class investors like Jeff Bezos, Arrived’s easy-to-use platform offers SEC-qualified investments such as rental homes and vacation rentals for as little as $100.

Their flexible investment options allow both accredited and non-accredited investors to benefit from this inflation-hedging asset class with ease. You start by browsing vetted properties, then you simply select a property and choose the number of shares to buy.

An overlooked inflation-resistant asset

Another reason to diversify? According to Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in November 2025, “It’s likely there’ll be a 10 to 20% drawdown in equity markets sometime in the next 12 to 24 months.”

His warning is yet another which suggests that diversification isn’t just smart — it’s essential.

Billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates continue to invest heavily in stocks, but they also carve out a portion of their portfolios for assets that behave differently from the market.

One standout example: post-war and contemporary art, which outpaced the S&P 500 by 15% from 1995 to 2025 while showing near-zero correlation to traditional equities.

Until recently, this world was off-limits. Now, with Masterworks, you can buy fractional shares in multimillion-dollar works by icons like Banksy, Picasso and Basquiat. While art can be illiquid and typically requires a long-term hold, it offers unique portfolio diversification.

Masterworks has sold 25 artworks so far, yielding net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%.*

Moneywise readers can get priority access to diversify with art: Skip the waitlist here

*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investing involves risk. See important Regulation A disclosures at Masterworks.com/cd.

Don’t try to time the market

Buffett’s market fears may very well turn out to be true. After all, the stock market ebbs and flows, rises and falls. Recession cycles are the natural ups and downs of an economy — and the fact is, trying to time the market by waiting it out for a better time to invest is a losing battle.

Here’s an example of that playing out: The S&P 500 generated an annualized return of 10.7% between 1990 to 2024 for investors who remained invested during the entire period. Investors who missed just the 15 best days during that period only saw returns of 7.6% — a sizable difference when you account for annual compounding (9).

Instead, consider just investing when you can, even in small amounts.

With Acorns, every time you make a purchase with your credit or debit card, it automatically rounds up the price to the nearest dollar and places the excess — the coins that would wind up in your pocket if you were paying cash — into a smart investment portfolio.

Let’s say you purchase a doughnut for $2.30. Before you’re done licking the sugar off your fingers, Acorns will round the amount to $3.00 and invest the 70-cent difference for you. Look at this math: $2.50 worth of daily round-ups adds up to $900 per year — and that’s before your savings earn money in the market.

Plus, if you sign up now, you can get a $20 bonus investment.

American Wealth Investing