The Bitcoin Fed meeting verdict is in. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on January 28, 2026, and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) now faces a critical support test. The Bitcoin price is consolidating near key support levels, with volatility compressing in a way that often precedes sharp moves in either direction.
Powell struck a neutral tone, describing the economy as on “firm footing” while noting inflation “remains somewhat elevated.” The decision itself offered no immediate catalyst, but the policy stance shapes what comes next. With rate cuts unlikely before June and ETF outflows accelerating, Bitcoin’s direction depends on whether support holds and institutional demand returns.
What the January FOMC Decision Means for Bitcoin
The Federal Reserve’s January 27-28 meeting delivered exactly what markets expected: no change to the 3.5% to 3.75% target range established after three cuts in late 2025. The decision came at 2:00 PM ET on January 28, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.
Two FOMC members dissented at the meeting. Governors Stephen Miran and Chris Waller both voted for a 25 basis point cut, marking Miran’s fourth consecutive dissent. The remaining 10 voting members approved the hold.
Powell’s comments at the FOMC meeting leaned cautiously optimistic. He described the U.S. economy as expanding at a “solid pace” and coming into 2026 on a “firm footing.” On inflation, Powell acknowledged it remains “somewhat elevated” but suggested tariff-related price pressures should work through the economy by mid-2026.
Markets now see little chance of a cut at the March meeting, with CME FedWatch placing odds at just 16%, with chances rising to about 30% by April. J.P. Morgan maintains its view that the Fed could hold steady through all of 2026, with no hike expected until late 2027.
For the Bitcoin price outlook, the neutral-to-dovish tone removes immediate downside pressure but offers no catalyst for a breakout. Traders are left watching liquidity conditions and technical levels for direction.
Bitcoin Technical Levels to Watch
Bitcoin’s price action following the Fed meeting has been subdued, with BTC trading in a tight range during the FOMC meeting before drifting lower.
The critical support zone sits between $86,000 and $87,145, where the 100-week moving average has held since November 2025. This level has absorbed multiple tests and represents the primary line of defense for bulls. Below that, the aggregate cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF buyers at $84,099 has provided support during recent consolidation.
Upside resistance appears at the 50-day moving average just above $90,000—a level Bitcoin has failed to reclaim twice this month. Stronger resistance sits between $92,000 and $94,000, where the 200-day moving average converges with prior breakdown levels. Clearing that zone would open room toward $97,000 to $100,000, while failure keeps the Bitcoin price trapped in consolidation.
Momentum indicators show mixed signals for the Bitcoin price outlook. RSI near oversold territory hints at bounce potential, while neutral funding rates suggest limited leveraged positioning. If support fails below $86,000, charts point to the $80,000 to $82,000 zone as the next downside target, aligning with the November 2025 low.
Why Powell’s Language Shifted Market Expectations
Powell’s press conference moved markets more than the rate decision itself. Several key statements at the January FOMC 2026 meeting shaped trader expectations:
On the economy: Powell noted a “clear improvement on the outlook for growth,” describing the forecast as “overall stronger.” This reduces urgency for additional cuts and supports the “higher for longer” narrative that has pressured risk assets.
On inflation: Powell acknowledged core readings likely hit 3% in December but emphasized tariff-related pressures should be temporary. His expectation that tariff inflation tops out by mid-2026 provides a soft timeline for when conditions might warrant easing.
On future policy: Powell stated the Fed is “well positioned” after three 2025 cuts and will make decisions “meeting by meeting” based on incoming data. He pushed back on the idea of preset moves, leaving flexibility in both directions.
The market reaction was telling as Gold surged 6% to a record high above $5,400 per ounce, while the Bitcoin price remained range-bound, underperforming some of the very assets it was designed to supplant.
Bitcoin Price Outlook After the Fed Meeting
Bitcoin enters the post-Fed meeting period shaped by a neutral policy stance, compressed volatility, and shifting liquidity conditions. The Bitcoin price prediction depends on whether macro conditions improve or deteriorate from here.
Bullish Scenario ($100,000-$120,000)
The Bitcoin price could rally toward $100,000-$120,000 if rate cut expectations rebuild and liquidity conditions improve. ETF inflows would resume as spot demand absorbs pullbacks and the Bitcoin price strength above the 200-day moving average would draw momentum traders and longer-term allocators. Steady accumulation and improving macro sentiment could carry Bitcoin into price discovery through the second half of 2026.
Base Scenario ($88,000-$100,000)
Bitcoin may consolidate between $88,000 and $100,000 if policy stays neutral and rate cuts arrive slowly. Traders would reduce leverage and wait for clearer signals. ETF participation would continue at a moderate pace while on-chain activity stabilizes without strong expansion. Volatility remains controlled, while price breakouts fade quickly.
Here, Bitcoin ends 2026 holding structure but without strong momentum for sustained upside.
Bearish Scenario ($80,000-$86,000)
Bitcoin’s price could weaken toward $80,000-$86,000 if inflation concerns resurface and tighter conditions return. A stronger dollar and higher yields would pressure risk assets. ETF inflows could slow, and short-term holders might increase selling activity.
In this scenario, exchange balances could rise as traders move funds back to altcoins. The market could spend much of 2026 rebuilding confidence before attempting another leg higher.
What Determines Bitcoin’s Next Move?
The Fed meeting delivered a neutral verdict—neither catalyst for price breakout nor reason for breakdown. The market reaction has been muted, with price testing critical support at the 100-week moving average.
Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether the $87,145 support holds and whether ETF inflows resume after $1.33 billion in weekly outflows. A sustained break below $86,000 targets the $80,000 support. Reclaiming $90,000 opens the path to $94,000 and beyond.
The outlook for the coming weeks rests on ETF flows and technicals more than Fed policy. Powell’s remaining meetings in March and May will shape expectations, but near-term direction depends on institutional conviction returning.