In mid-January 2026, Polymarket bettors priced roughly 65% odds that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) would fall to $80,000 before reaching $100,000—and most traders ignored the signal.
Three weeks later, Bitcoin didn’t just fall to $80,000 — it crashed below $70,000 and briefly touched $60,000 on Feb. 5, marking a 14% single-day drop that was the steepest since the FTX collapse in November 2022. The crash wiped out over 50% of Bitcoin’s value from its October 2025 ATH of $126,000.
Now the same Polymarket bettors are shifting their stance toward a Bitcoin recovery. They give Bitcoin a 71% chance of reclaiming $85,000 before February ends — but just 10% odds of returning to $100,000.
Polymarket Bitcoin Prediction for February
The current odds show stabilization rather than euphoria. Traders expect Bitcoin to recover from the crash but don’t see a return to six figures happening soon.
| Price Target | Probability | What It Means |
| $85,000 | 71% | Strong consensus for near-term bounce |
| $90,000 | 37% | Less confidence in extended rally |
| $100,000 | 10% | Almost no one expects six figures this month |
| $75,000 | 47% | Coin flip on retesting recent lows |
| $70,000 | 22% | Limited fear of another major leg down |
| $65,000 | 10% | Crash scenario largely priced out |
The 71% probability of an $85,000 Bitcoin recovery represents roughly 23% upside from current levels around $70,000. Meanwhile, the 10% odds for both $100,000 upside and $65,000 downside suggest bettors see a range-bound market ahead rather than a decisive move in either direction.
Why Prediction Markets Got Bitcoin’s Outlook Right
Polymarket aggregates real money bets from thousands of participants into a single probability. Unlike analyst forecasts or social media sentiment, these odds reflect where traders actually risk capital.
The platform claims 94% accuracy on high-volume markets in the final hours before an event resolves. During the recent crash, Polymarket odds correctly anticipated the move days before most traders positioned for it. When the crowd priced bearish odds on Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency was still trading above $90,000. The signal was there but most people weren’t paying attention.
That track record doesn’t make prediction markets infallible. Thin markets can be manipulated, and crowds sometimes get it wrong. But when a market with significant volume prices an outcome at 71%, it represents genuine consensus from informed participants rather than wishful thinking.
The Case for a Bitcoin Bounce
The latest crash has left Bitcoin’s sentiment indicators at levels that historically precede sharp reversals.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index collapsed to 11 — deep in “extreme fear” territory and among the lowest readings on record. Funding rates turned deeply negative as short sellers piled in, and liquidations exceeded $16 billion in ten days.
By the February 5 low, nearly 10 million Bitcoin sat underwater—a concentration of losses seen only at previous bear market bottoms, and typically where capitulation ends. Once sellers exhaust themselves, even modest buying pressure can spark sharp moves higher, especially when over-leveraged shorts get squeezed.
Polymarket odds have now shifted from bearish to cautiously bullish. Combined with extreme fear sentiment, the setup mirrors what preceded major recoveries in previous cycles.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026: What Analysts Expect
While prediction markets focus on near-term probabilities, Wall Street analysts have weighed in on where the Bitcoin price could trade by year-end. The range spans from $75,000 to $250,000—reflecting genuine disagreement about how institutional adoption, Fed policy, and supply dynamics will combine.
| Predictor | Price Target | Factor |
| Carol Alexander (Sussex) | $75K–$150K | High volatility range, $110K center of gravity |
| Standard Chartered | $150,000 | ETF inflows and institutional adoption |
| Maple Finance | $175,000 | Bitcoin-backed lending exceeds $100B |
| Nexo | $150K–$200K | Supply dynamics improve post-crash |
| Tom Lee (Fundstrat) | $200K–$250K | ETF demand overwhelms halving cycle |
| JPMorgan | $266,000 | Gold-comparison framework (theoretical long-term) |
Bull Case ($150K–$250K): The most optimistic forecasters expect Bitcoin ETF inflows to resume, Fed rate cuts to boost risk appetite, and institutional adoption to accelerate. Under this scenario, the Bitcoin price could reclaim $100,000 by Q2 and push toward new highs by year-end, with the February crash having cleared speculative excess and created better entry points.
Base Case ($100K–$150K): Most forecasters see the Bitcoin price stabilizing in the $70,000–$90,000 range through Q1, then gradually recovering as macro conditions improve. Institutional consensus clusters here, balancing caution with long-term optimism.
Bear Case ($60K–$75K): The bearish view treats the crash as the start of a prolonged consolidation. This scenario assumes ETF outflows continue, macro headwinds persist, and Bitcoin retests February lows before finding a floor — and some warn of $50,000 or lower if key support breaks.
Will Bitcoin Recover?
If Polymarket’s track record holds, Bitcoin is more likely to see $85,000 than $65,000 in the coming weeks. The platform’s 71% odds reflect confidence in a near-term bounce, though not a return to all-time highs. For that recovery to materialize, Bitcoin needs to hold support above $68,000 and reclaim $75,000 with sustained buying pressure.
Prediction markets aren’t crystal balls, but they called the crash when most traders were still bullish. Their shift toward recovery odds suggests the worst of the selling may be behind us.