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Strategy (MSTR) is back in the spotlight after a sharp Bitcoin rebound lifted the stock, a fresh 3,015 Bitcoin purchase funded by equity sales, and an STRC preferred dividend increase to 11.5%.
See our latest analysis for Strategy.
Those moves come after a choppy period where the share price has seen a 6.5% 7 day gain but a 29.6% 90 day share price decline. The 3 year total shareholder return sits at roughly 4.7x, underscoring how sentiment around Bitcoin exposure can swing quickly.
If this Bitcoin driven story has your attention, it could be a good moment to scan our screener of 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks and see which other crypto exposed stocks fit your watchlist.
With MSTR down 52% over the past year but still showing a roughly 4.7x three year total return, investors are left with a simple question: is this Bitcoin proxy now undervalued, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
BlackGoat’s widely followed narrative pegs Strategy’s fair value at $663 per share, far above the last close of $132.68, framing MSTR as a high-conviction Bitcoin proxy.
Valuing MicroStrategy remains the ultimate $1,000,000 question. It represents a completely unique investment concept, directly tied to the performance of a highly volatile digital commodity: Bitcoin. As a leveraged beta play on Bitcoin, MicroStrategy introduces not only the inherent risks of Bitcoin’s volatility but also the amplified exposure from its aggressive financial strategies.
Curious how that $663 figure is built. The narrative leans heavily on aggressive earnings momentum, richer margins and a premium multiple that assumes Bitcoin optionality. Want to see which specific forecasts sit under that price tag.
Result: Fair Value of $663 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on Bitcoin sentiment staying supportive, and any sharp compression in Strategy’s NAV premium or tougher crypto regulation could quickly challenge that $663 thesis.
Find out about the key risks to this Strategy narrative.
After all this, are you feeling bullish or cautious about MSTR, and do you want to move quickly to test that view against the data? You can weigh up its mix of concerns and potential upsides by checking out 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs and deciding what really matters for you.
If you are serious about tightening up your watchlist, now is the time to cast the net wider and see what else the data is revealing.
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Target potential mispricings by reviewing our list of 49 high quality undervalued stocks that pair quality fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect them.
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Strengthen the income side of your portfolio by scanning 15 dividend fortresses built around stocks offering higher yields with a focus on endurance.
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Prioritise resilience by checking 75 resilient stocks with low risk scores, a collection of companies with lower risk scores that could help balance bolder positions such as Bitcoin exposed names.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MSTR.
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