Key Takeaways
-
Commodity volatility could pressure Bitcoin, says Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone.
-
Bitcoin needs low stock-market volatility, he said.
-
Analysts see short-term bullish momentum.
Bitcoin’s recent price rally, up 7% in the last seven days, could face headwinds if volatility in oil and other commodities spills over into broader financial markets, according to Bloomberg Intelligence commodities strategist Mike McGlone.
McGlone said heightened swings in crude oil and precious metals — linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran — could push volatility higher in equity markets, creating a challenging environment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
McGlone said Bitcoin’s price performance remains closely tied to volatility in U.S. equities, particularly the Nasdaq, which he said must remain near historically low volatility levels for risk assets to rally.
“The bottom line for these highly volatile risk assets to go up is Nasdaq volatility,” he said.
He added that Bitcoin was in a “bear market” and had struggled to find strong support after earlier predictions that it could be a “worthy short” near the $94,000 level.
According to McGlone, crypto needs to hold above roughly $74,000 to maintain its current momentum, while the $64,000 range could act as a “the first good resistance.”
He also pointed to broader structural pressures.
“The whole space is heading lower. There’s an unlimited supply of cryptocurrencies,” McGlone said.
McGlone said the current geopolitical flare-up involving Iran and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to sustain significantly higher oil prices.
Brent crude has climbed about 10% to roughly $80 per barrel, with some analysts warning prices could rise above $100 if supply disruptions continue.
Meanwhile, the cost of transporting 2 million barrels of crude from the Middle East to China has jumped to around $200,000 per day — the highest level since the 2020 pandemic.
However, McGlone argued that global supply — particularly from the United States — remains abundant and could keep crude prices under pressure once geopolitical tensions ease.
“Then the first ever closure of the Strait of Hormuz — how long is that going to last?” McGlone said, suggesting the situation may stabilize before upcoming U.S. midterm elections.
He added that oil would likely trend lower unless Iran carries out a prolonged military disruption of shipping through the strategic waterway.
“To get something like $100 oil, it would take a significant military shutdown by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, adding that such a scenario currently appears unlikely.
Despite McGlone’s cautious outlook, some analysts say Bitcoin’s recent price action points to strengthening bullish momentum.
CCN analyst Abiodun Oladokun said Bitcoin recently broke out of a consolidation range and closed above the key $70,000 level, signaling renewed buying pressure.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was trading around $72,448, up nearly 10% over the previous 24 hours.
If bullish momentum continues, Bitcoin could move toward resistance near $78,125, according to the analysis.
However, Oladokun warned that renewed profit-taking could push Bitcoin back toward support levels near $70,612, with a deeper decline potentially sending prices toward $68,555 if that support fails.
Top Picks for Bitcoin
The post Iran-Driven Oil Volatility Could Derail Bitcoin Price Rally, Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone Says, Warns of Further Downturn appeared first on ccn.com.