The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve is set to meet on March 17–18, with investors closely watching the outcome as the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran continues to roil global markets.
Just a month ago, most market participants expected the Fed to cut interest rates at least three times in 2026, with the easing cycle likely to begin in the second half of the year. However, the ongoing conflict and its potential impact on global growth and inflation, have clouded those expectations.
Rising oil prices have become a key concern for policymakers. A sustained rally in crude could push inflation higher again, forcing the Fed to stay cautious. As a result, many investors now expect the FOMC to keep rates unchanged at the March meeting, and possibly for longer if inflation risks persist.
Markets are currently pricing in near certainty of a hold in the 3.5%–3.75% range, with any potential rate cuts pushed to September at the earliest. Some analysts are even questioning whether the Fed will be able to cut rates at all in 2026.
Energy markets volatile
Energy markets have been volatile amid the conflict in the West Asia. Oil prices surged to around $120 per barrel at the peak of tensions before easing to about $83 per barrel as geopolitical signals and supply expectations shifted. Disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows, have added to concerns about energy costs feeding into inflation.
The debate has also taken on a political tone. As oil prices spiked last week, former US President Donald Trump urged the Fed to cut rates immediately. In a post on Truth Social, he said Fed Chair Jerome Powell “should be dropping interest rates immediately.”
However, since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, investor sentiment has shifted in the opposite direction. Traders increasingly believe higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated, leaving the Fed with limited room to ease policy, at least for now.
What time is the Fed rate decision in India?
The Fed’s interest-rate decision is scheduled to be announced at 2:00 pm Eastern Time on March 18, which corresponds to 11:30 pm IST on March 18 in India.
Where to watch the Fed decision and Powell’s speech?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will begin 30 minutes after the policy announcement, at around 12:00 am IST (March 19). CNBC-TV18’s readers can track all the latest updates on the website. Apart from the website, here are the other links to watch the presser.
YouTube
X (formerly Twitter)
The official website of the Federal Reserve
(Edited by : Ajay Vaishnav)
First Published: Mar 17, 2026 4:48 PM IST
