The stock market’s solid start to the week may signal investors aren’t appreciating the risks tied to the U.S.-Iran war, according to Goldman Sachs. Stocks rose broadly on Monday. The S & P 500 climbed 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up more than 300 points, or 0.8%. The moves came as oil pulled back after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the U.S. is letting oil tankers from Iran pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude was also pressured by a report that said the U.S. would announce a group of countries to escort ships through the Strait. Still, some are wary of this reaction. “I worry the stock market is underestimating the potential downside tails,” Tony Pasquariello, global head of hedge fund coverage at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to clients. “The market is certainly smarter than I am, but I’m surprised that market participants aren’t more concerned.” .SPX 5D mountain SPX 5-day chart Indeed, there are signs that risks persist. While reports emerged of the escort coalition in the Middle East, President Donald Trump himself suggested it wasn’t quite ready yet . “We have some [countries] that are really enthusiastic. They’re coming already. They’ve already started to get there,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “We’ll give you a list. Some are very enthusiastic, and some are less than enthusiastic, and I assume some will not do it.” On top of that, Monday’s bounce wasn’t overly convincing from a volume standpoint. The SPDR SD & P 500 ETF (SPY) , one of the most widely traded funds in the market, traded 71.3 million shares Monday. That’s below its 30-day average volume of 88.5 million. The Invesco QQQ Trust , which tracks the Nasdaq-100, also had light volume with 44.4 million shares; its 30-day average sits at 71.5 million. And while the S & P 500 continues to hold above its key 200-day moving average, Rob Ginsberg of Wolfe Research thinks financials need to recover before a meaningful rally takes place. The S & P 500 financials sector is down 4% this month and is “deeply oversold,” the strategist wrote to clients. “We’ve been laser-focused on their troubling performance for quite some time, and if the market is going to make a powerful stand at its 200-day, this needs to be the one to show us the way.”
Goldman Sachs thinks stock market underestimates Iran war risk after Monday's bounce
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