Stocks ended Tuesday on a mixed note, with major indexes slipping as investors remained cautious despite a brief improvement in sentiment tied to geopolitical developments.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led declines, sliding 0.8% or 185 points to 21,762. The Dow Jones fell 0.2%, or 84 points, to close at 46,124, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.4% to 6,556. In contrast, the Russell 2000 outperformed, rising 0.5% to 2,505, signaling some rotation into smaller-cap names.
Markets found some support earlier in the session after comments from Donald Trump about delaying potential military action, which helped ease immediate risk concerns. Still, the rebound proved limited.
Antonio Di Giacomo, senior market analyst at XS.com, said the announcement “helped improve market sentiment, supporting a moderate rebound,” as it encouraged some capital back into equities. However, he noted that “the move remained limited,” underscoring investors’ continued caution amid a lack of concrete confirmation on geopolitical developments.
That caution continues to define the broader market tone. According to Di Giacomo, “the lack of clarity about the negotiations’ actual progress keeps investors cautious, limiting a stronger short-term rebound,” with the S&P 500 operating in an environment where optimism remains fragile and highly sensitive to headlines.
Looking ahead, traders are turning their attention to earnings after the bell from GameStop, which could provide an additional catalyst for after-hours trading.
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Circle Internet Group / Coinbase Global Inc.: Shares of both companies fell sharply after reports of proposed U.S. legislation that could ban yield offerings on stablecoins, raising concerns over a key revenue stream.
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Dollarama Inc.: The retailer’s stock dropped after it forecast weaker-than-expected sales growth, reflecting softer consumer demand amid inflation and labor market concerns.
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Netgear: Shares surged after U.S. regulators restricted foreign-made consumer routers, a move that could benefit domestic manufacturers.
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Estée Lauder Companies Inc.: The company confirmed it is in early discussions with Spain’s Puig over a potential merger, though no agreement has been reached.
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Jefferies Group: Shares rose on reports that Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is considering a takeover, despite Jefferies signaling it is not open to a sale.
Oil prices remained elevated near $90 per barrel despite President Donald Trump calling off missile strikes in the Middle East, as recent attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Qatar continue to disrupt supply, Leede Financial said in a note.
The brokerage raised its 2026 oil price forecast to $75 per barrel from $60 previously, citing ongoing geopolitical risks, while projecting a wide trading range of $50 to $120. That compares with average prices of $65 in 2025, $77 in 2024, $80 in 2023 and $95 in 2022.
However, analysts expect longer-term pressure on prices as global supply outpaces demand. “The outlook for 2026-27 also calls for supply to exceed demand, which is likely to push prices lower over the long term — once the wild card of war is no longer a factor,” the analysts said.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global oil production exceeded consumption in 2025, reinforcing expectations of a looser market balance beyond the current geopolitical tensions.
“Recent Middle East hostilities and rising oil prices have tightened financial conditions (equity declines, rising Treasury yields, wider credit spreads), potentially impacting the growth outlook,” analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote Tuesday.
“Our daily version of the Fed staff’s FCI-G shows a tightening over the past couple weeks equal to about a one-tenth drag on growth over the next twelve months.
“Despite this tightening, financial conditions remain very easy, boosting the growth outlook by a bit less than a percentage point over the next year. In the near term, this buffer may allow the Fed to prioritize inflation over the negative effects on growth, potentially leading to a longer pause. While a rate hike could be possible later this year, we do not see that as a likely outcome.”
“Following Monday’s extreme volatility, markets have markedly calmed down as investors await the next developments”, says Axel Rudolph, Chief Technical Analyst at investing and trading platform IG.
“Brent crude rose to around $100 a barrel, recovering part of the prior session’s sharp drop, as volatile trading persisted amid heightened Middle East tensions, growing risks of wider regional involvement and ongoing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.
“The greenback climbed amid fading hopes of Fed rate cuts as the ongoing war in the Middle East and limited progress on de-escalation supported safe haven demand for the US currency.”
U.S. business activity showed mixed momentum in March, according to preliminary S&P Global PMI data.
The flash manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4, above expectations of 51.3, indicating stronger-than-anticipated expansion in factory activity. In contrast, the services PMI registered at 51.1, slightly below the 51.5 forecast, signaling a modest slowdown in the services sector.
The flash composite PMI stood at 51.4, pointing to continued overall expansion in private-sector activity, though at a moderate pace.
Readings above 50 indicate expansion, suggesting the U.S. economy continued to grow in March despite divergence between manufacturing and services.
Wall Street opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.8%, the S&P 500 falling 0.7% and the Nasdaq slipping 0.9% in early trade.
Losses on the S&P were led by consumer and tech names, with Estée Lauder dropping 7.4%, Fair Isaac down 5.8% and CrowdStrike off 5%, while Datadog and Gartner both fell around 4.7%.
Retail and consumer stocks were also weaker, with Dollar General down 4.5% and Best Buy off 3.8%.
On the Dow, Salesforce was down 4% to lead the declines, followed by IBM, Home Depot, Boeing and Microsoft.
There were seven names in green, with two names up more than 1%: Verizon Communications and Chevron.
US futures were pointing lower ahead of Tuesday’s open, as early optimism over a potential Iran ceasefire fades following a flat denial from Tehran that any talks have taken place.
The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all off around 0.3%.
Markets swung sharply at the start of the week after President Donald Trump said the US and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” and announced a five-day pause on military strikes, even though Iran soon snapped back that there had been “no direct or indirect contact” with the US.
The Dow and Nasdaq both climbed 1.4% and the S&P gained 1.2%, with the small-cap Russell 2000 outperforming with a 2.3% jump.
WTI crude dropped back below $90 a barrel after Trump’s news, after skirting around $100 earlier. Today oil is back up to $91.60 a barrel.
Markets are wondering how much faith to put in Trump’s comments, after Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf poured cold water on his claims, posting that “no negotiations have been held with the US” and accusing Washington of using “fake news to manipulate the financial and oil markets.”
Bond markets have been roiled by Trump’s claims, with US Treasuries rallying steeply on news that talks were progressing, but later sold off again “as the market is unsure of the status of any talks on Iranian denials of Trump’s claims”, according to analysts at Saxo.
The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield posted a high above 4.00% before dropping as low as 3.79% and then rebounding to near 3.90% in the Tuesday session. The benchmark 10-year yield saw a similar pattern, rising as high as 4.44% before falling to 4.30% and then rebounding to 4.388% currently.
Friday is shaping up as the next critical moment, with a US naval group including the USS Tripoli and USS New Orleans arriving in the Gulf region and Trump’s five-day ceasefire on attacks on energy facilities coming to an end.