Can the Red Sox strike gold again in MLB Draft? The Roman Anthony selection in 2022 provides blueprint

view original post

“I’ve heard it from many people,” said Anthony. “The draft would have been coming up here in a few days for me. It’s funny to joke about it with my agent or my family and be like, ‘Wow.’ But I definitely think we made the right decision.”

The Sox would agree — and hope that across 21 picks on Sunday and Monday, they identify other players who take off in their system. So given that their first pick is No. 15 overall, how do they do that?

Anthony is in some ways instructive. The outfielder fell out of the first round based on some swing-and-miss issues on the showcase circuit in the summer before his senior year of high school.

But the Sox were impressed with how he adjusted his swing and became an all-fields hitter who had a great understanding of the strike zone. Moreover, they were dazzled by his inquisitive nature and how he applied information.

“We thought he was going to make really good swing decisions [and] get to power. I think one thing we want to prioritize was getting the ball into the air pull-side more,” said Red Sox director of amateur scouting Devin Pearson. “For us, [his need was] continuing to get stronger, continuing to be athletic, and then just getting him a bunch of at-bats. But his brain worked, and his mechanics were clean.”

His brain worked?

“Swing decisions and also getting the barrel to the ball, a lot of it’s cognitive,” said Pearson. “So trying to assess just how [a player’s] brain works in many different settings is something we try to prioritize.”

When selecting players, the Sox typically separate innate or ingrained traits from those that can be developed.

Whenever possible, the Sox test players for their athleticism and explosiveness. Simple jump tests can help identify a player’s projected peak exit velocity or pitch velocity based on his current physical state. If there is a gap between the player’s actual and potential peaks, there’s room to make mechanical adjustments.

As for the brain, in the case of hitters, making contact is hard and requires elite hand-eye coordination as well as unusual ability to recognize pitches. Improvement in those areas is possible but there are generally limits. Bat speed, on the other hand, can be improved fairly reliably through both strength and conditioning as well as player development programs to tap into power.

For pitchers, the Sox typically look for traits such as size, athleticism, and unusual but repeatable deliveries that create deception on pitches in the strike zone. Velocity, in some ways, is a less-coveted commodity given that it can be trained. In many ways, 2024 second-rounder Payton Tolle — a lefthanded giant of a pitcher who didn’t throw terribly hard but featured unusual extension on his pitches (releasing them from 7½ feet in front of the rubber) and a low release height (creating ride on his fastball).

“We’re looking for guys that do have unique looks. For hitters, the more unique the pitcher is, the more difficult it is to pick up the ball,” said Pearson. “I think Tolle, we had seen him get to higher-end velocities, not sustain it. We just felt confident that we could get him there, plus just knowing him, he was going to train his tail off.”

The information, video, and data about college and high school players has changed significantly, and with it, the information and insight the Sox seek from their scouts has evolved.

“I think the job has changed a little bit in terms of our guys are really prioritizing background information and getting to know the player and their training environments a little bit more than we did,” said Pearson. “[Scouts seek] standard character stuff, trying to understand who [players] are as people, but then it’s really diving into what they’ve been exposed to on the training side, what they’re open to from their coachability, aptitude, ability to retain. Our area scouts, I think, don’t get enough credit for the amount of digging they do and people they talk to, to get those answers. We ask them to do a lot.”

Now, that work will inform the 21 players whom the Sox add to their organization next week.

When? The first three rounds take place on Sunday, starting at 6 p.m. Rounds 4-20 will start at 11:30 a.m. on Monday.

Where do the Sox pick? The Sox have four picks on day one. Their first-round pick is No. 15 overall. They acquired a Competitive Balance Round A selection — the No. 33 overall pick — from the Brewers for Quinn Priester. While they forfeited their second-round pick for signing Alex Bregman, they received a compensatory draft pick between the second and third rounds (No. 75 overall) as compensation for Nick Pivetta’s free-agent departure. And the team picks at No. 87 overall in the third round.

Who? In contrast to 2024, when there was a consensus top eight to 10 players, even the top of this year’s draft is wide open. Candidates to go to the Nationals at No. 1 overall include high school shortstop Ethan Holliday and LSU lefthander Kade Anderson, with college shortstop Aiva Arquette, high school shortstop Eli Willits, college starter Liam Doyle, and high school righthander Seth Hernandez all getting consideration.

Who for the Sox? Good luck projecting that. In a draft without consensus, their strategy could break in many directions based on how they decide to spread money among their top picks. In some ways, this draft is comparable to 2022, when the Sox had three picks (Nos. 24, 41, and 79) through the first two rounds.

That year, they took high schooler Mikey Romero (generally seen as a second-rounder) as a surprising first-round pick, then went for power-hitting ceiling with second-round selections Cutter Coffey and finally Anthony. Anthony, who received a $2.5 million bonus, was their highest-paid selection.

The Sox could opt to defy industry consensus with their first-round pick in order to take a player who they love but who will accept a lesser bonus, and then spend more on later picks. It’s hard to speak with any real confidence about their intentions — even as a number of recent mock drafts have attached them to University of Tennessee infielder Gavin Kilen.

“It’s fair to say we’ll have about 20 players that we’re considering in our first pick,” said Devin Pearson.

---

Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him @alexspeier.