The price of gold is hitting record highs, and according to market experts, China is one of the main unseen players behind this unstoppable surge; for some, the most prominent. The precious metal has appreciated by more than 40% in 2025, reaching $4,380 per ounce in October, an absolute record — although it has retreated in recent weeks — amid a growing appetite among central banks to bolster their reserves with assets that are considered safe. Despite this being a global trend, several analysts point particularly strongly to Beijing: they agree that the Asian giant appears to be acquiring far greater volumes of gold than it publicly declares, and that this additional demand, which goes unreported, is acting as one of the determining factors in the biggest gold rally in decades.
Independent reports paint a very different picture than the one offered by the official statements of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC, the central bank). The discrepancies in the figures, echoed by advisers at various international investment banks, fuel widespread suspicion that a significant portion of Chinese purchases goes unreported, part of a strategy to protect itself against geopolitical risks and reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar and assets at a time of increasing international fragmentation.
The rise in prices is partly a dazzling reflection of a turbulent and uncertain world. Accumulating gold “is a way to have security to protect your currency,” says Michael Haigh, global head of commodity research at Société Générale, via video call from London, one of the key markets for this metal.
Haigh places the beginning of China’s strategy some time after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, one of the world’s leading gold producers. The West decided to freeze and immobilize its assets abroad (including gold) as punishment, and many governments took note. “Countries that wouldn’t like to see measures taken against them have started to worry, and they want to move their gold back to where they are,” he points out. The arrival of U.S. President Donald Trump has accelerated the process. “There has been a desire to move away from U.S. assets because these could also be confiscated,” he explains.
According to the PBOC, China has made 12 consecutive months of gold purchases, and as of the end of October, its official holdings totaled 2,304 tons of gold, equivalent to 8% of its foreign reserves. The Asian giant is the world’s sixth-largest gold holder, according to the World Gold Council, the leading international organization in the sector.
However, Bruce Ikemizu, director of the Japan Bullion Wholesale Market Association (JBMA), is among the analysts who estimate that “the PBOC’s total reserves are more than double [the reported amount]; they are around 5,000 tons.” This figure would catapult China into second place and substantially reduce the gap between it and the United States, which held 8,133 tons at the end of the third quarter.
Ikemizu explains to EL PAÍS from Tokyo that the PBOC has been “cutting its position in dollars and increasing its gold purchases” for months, which in practice means a “reorganization of its reserve portfolio” to depend less on the U.S. currency.
The discrepancy between official figures and actual flows is also reflected in Société Générale’s estimates. Based on the contrast between bullion imports, domestic production, and official reserves, the French bank suggests that Beijing may have added up to 250 tons of gold to its coffers this year, even though it has only reported 25.
This annual gap fits into a Chinese dynamic that the French institution has been observing since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Its analysis, based on U.K. gold exports — one of the most reliable indicators of the physical movement of gold bars — shows that China has added more than 1,080 tons of gold to its reserves since mid-2022. This hasn’t been through one-off purchases, but rather through a steady and sustained accumulation. According to their calculations, Beijing acquires an average of 33 tons per month during periods of activity, a pace moderate enough not to destabilize a market extremely sensitive to large transactions. At this rate, the country would need almost a decade for gold to reach around 20% of its international reserves, even if it maintained a stable volume of purchases.
Official figures confirm that China has steadily increased its gold reserves since the outbreak of the war. The PBOC resumed gold purchases at the end of 2022 after three years of inactivity, adding 62 tons in November and December, thus surpassing the 2,000-ton mark for the first time. This trend accelerated in 2023 with the acquisition of 225 tons, making Beijing the largest single buyer among central banks. In 2024, however, the pace slowed: the PBOC reported 44 tons (almost all between January and April, before a seven-month pause) and ended the year with 2,280 tons, equivalent to 5% of its foreign assets.
“What’s striking this year is that China, despite record-high prices, continues to report its purchases. There were periods when it didn’t report changes in its reserves, but this time it did, even if it’s only a ton. The message to the public is clear: buying gold is a good idea,” emphasizes Adrian Ash, research director at the London-based platform BullionVault, in a phone interview. For him, knowing the exact amount that central banks are buying is “ultimately impossible” unless they disclose it.
The rise in prices is also fueled by the traditional investor interest in finding a safe haven during volatile times. With returns at record highs, the markets in Shanghai, New York, and London are booming, while mines are operating at full capacity and exploration is bearing fruit. China, the world’s largest gold producer, accounting for nearly 10% of global output, announced last week the discovery of a gold deposit with reserves of more than 1,400 tons, the largest since 1949, according to state media.
Unfortunately, Ash reasons, all of this is the dark side of a geopolitical scenario of “fear and mistrust” between countries. He recalls that Russia, as has been documented, paid for Iran’s supply of kamikaze drones with gold bullion; and he goes back further, to Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s obsession with accumulating tons of gold: “It’s a very useful asset in times of civil crisis,” he says. Therefore, when he observes that central banks in countries as diverse as India and Poland — which has been buying gold massively since 2022 — are accumulating reserves, he concludes that it is not a good sign for global stability.
“We live in a multipolar world,” summarizes Ikemizu, a Japanese economist. While the United States was once the dominant military and economic power, many governments have since abandoned its model. The dollar remains the most powerful currency, but other safe havens are being sought. “What will you trust?” Ikemizu asks. “The Russian ruble? The euro or the Japanese yen, which are, in a way, part of that Western world?” “The only currency they can trust now is gold.” He doesn’t recall ever seeing such a surge in interest in his 39 years in the industry.
Analysts insist it’s not a bubble. Haigh, from Société Générale, predicts it will still break the $5,000 barrier, in a sustained long-term climb. He believes central banks, with China leading the way, will avoid buying all at once, so as not to overheat the market and drive prices even higher. They’ll proceed gradually, buying over years. “It’s a widespread trend of people diversifying,” Haigh concludes. “We live in a different world, don’t we?”
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