A previous version of this report incorrectly said silver futures had hit an all-time high Monday. While they did reach a multi-year high, silver futures peaked in 1980 at $50 a ounce.
U.S. stock-market futures were flat Monday while gold futures hit a new all-time high, amid uncertainty around the Fed’s independence and the Trump administration’s tariffs, as well as rising optimism about potential interest-rate cuts.
The continuous contract for gold futures GC00 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to a record high of $3,578.40 an ounce late Monday. Gold was most recently trading up 1.4%, around $3,566. The precious metal has seen its price soar about 35% year to date. The continuous contract for silver SI00 surged to its highest point this year, at $41.995. Silver was most recently trading at $41.740, up 2.5% and 42% higher on the year.
After an up-and-down start to the session, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YM00 were recently down 46 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures ES00 and Nasdaq-100 futures NQ00 were also down about 0.1%. Bitcoin BTCUSD bounced back to regain the $109,000 level, while crude oil, as reflected by West Texas Intermediate front-month prices CL.1, gained 1.5%. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of six foreign rivals, was up slightly.
Gold and silver are seen as safe-haven assets, and their appeal has gained amid fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve may lose its independence, weakening the dollar. President Donald Trump has, for months, pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slash interest rates, and his recent attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook is seen by many as an attempt to impose control over the central bank.
The legality of Trump’s firing of Cook is still in dispute; a judge made no immediate ruling after a Friday hearing, and the case could eventually make its way to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The legality of Trump’s global tariffs is also in doubt. A federal appeals court on Friday upheld a lower court’s ruling that they were illegal, but the tariffs will remain in place at least until Oct. 14 to allow the Supreme Court to review the case.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is optimistic that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting later this month. Lower borrowing costs can make gold a more appealing investment as opposed to interest-bearing investments, such as government bonds.
September is expected to be a critical month for the markets.
“The real question isn’t whether the rally can carry on but how the market will handle stress if the veneer of calm is ripped away,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a note Monday, suggesting a 5% to 10% pullback is “entirely plausible” before a recovery by year’s end.
Also see: September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks. Why this time could be different.
On Friday, stocks closed lower but still finished August with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA slipped 0.2% on Friday, while the S&P 500 SPX fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP dropped 1.1%. For the month of August, the Dow rallied 3.2%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.9% and the Nasdaq gained 1.6%, with each index hitting record highs.
U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
Investors will be keeping a keen eye on jobs data later this week: July numbers on job openings on Wednesday, ADP employment data and initial jobless claims on Thursday and the government’s monthly jobless report on Friday.
Powell has suggested the Fed may cut rates if employment data is too weak, and investors will be hoping the reports hit a sweet spot — showing modest payroll growth, but a slight rise in unemployment that would be enough to trigger a rate cut without raising fears of a recession.