The knockout stage of the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup will pit the event’s all-time winningest team versus a guest nation making its first Gold Cup appearance. Nine-time Gold Cup winners, Mexico, will face Saudi Arabia, who aren’t Concacaf members, but were invited to compete in the 2025 Gold Cup. This quarterfinals matchup will be the fifth competitive meaning between the nations, with Mexico winning each of the previous four, including a 2022 World Cup victory in their last matchup.
Kickoff is at 10:15 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Mexico are -195 favorites (risk $195 to win $100) on the 90-minute money line in the latest Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico odds, while the Saudis are +600 underdogs (risk $100 to win $600). A draw is priced at +310, and the over/under for total goals scored is 2.5. Mexico are -475 favorites to advance. Before locking in any Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia picks, you need to see what proven SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green has to say.
Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer picks, including Euro qualifying (+6.30 units), EFL Cup (+4.47), FA Cup (+3.07) and Champions League (+3.05), among others. Anyone who follows him could be way up. Also see our picks for Chelsea vs. Benfica in the FIFA Club World Cup right here.
Here are Green’s best bets for Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico on Saturday (odds subject to change):
- Mexico to win & under 3.5 goals (-110)
- Mexico to win to nil (+110)
- Raúl Jiménez to score (+145)
Mexico to win & under 3.5 goals (-110)
Mexico was involved in a wild opening match in which all five goals of their game versus the Dominican Republic were scored over a 24-minute span. But things have calmed down since as their second match had just two total goals while their final group stage match was a scoreless draw. As for the Saudis, they play a style of soccer that is conducive to low scoring as the four total goals in their Gold Cup games are tied for the fewest in the tournament. All eight of Saudi Arabia’s matches in 2025 have seen under 3.5 total goals.
“The sportsbooks now make Mexico the outright favorite to win this tournament. El Tri are the reigning champions, and they are playing with a great deal of confidence right now,” Green told SportsLine. “They will face a stern test of their credentials against the Saudis, but they should have enough quality to get the job done.” You can get even more bang for your buck with the latest bet365 bonus code, which can get you access to either $150 in bonus bets or a $1,000 first bet safety net when using promo code CBSBET365.
Mexico to win to nil (+110)
The Saudis have scored just two goals across three Gold Cup matches, and one of those came via penalty. Their two goals are the second-fewest in the F Gold Cup, and it’s the fewest amongst the eight teams that advanced to the knockout round. They just don’t generate many goal-scoring opportunities, and a lack of set pieces has much to do with that, as Saudi Arabia’s six corner kicks are the fewest in this tournament. Meanwhile, Mexico’s defense has been stout over the last pair of games, and the two goals they allowed throughout the group stage were the third-fewest of any nation.
“Mexico’s squad looks vastly superior. The defense looked shaky in their 3-2 win against the Dominican Republic, but they have since kept clean sheets against Suriname and Costa Rica,” Green said in picking Mexico to post a clean sheet victory. You can use a DraftKings promo code to get $150 in bonus bets if your initial $5 wager wins.
Raúl Jiménez to score (+145)
Raul Jimenez has 40 career goals for Mexico, which is third-most in national team history. The 40th came in the team’s opener versus the Dominican Republic. He’s tied for fourth in both total shots (eight) and shots on goal (four) in the Gold Cup, and Jimenez has a distinguished history on this kind of stage. Back at the 2019 Gold Cup, he won the Golden Ball, which is awarded to the best overall player of the tournament, as his five goals were second most at the event. Jimenez is also coming off a prolific domestic season with Fulham, where his 13 goals were his most over his last five years in the Premier League.
A recent formation change by Mexico increases Jimenez’ chances of finding the back of the net versus Saudi Arabia. Mexico used a 4-4-2 in their first two games but then deployed a 4-2-3-1 last time out, with Jimenez as the lone striker. The Mexicans have lots of offensive firepower, but if they stick with this formation then Jimenez has overwhelmingly the best chance of scoring of any player. You can find +145 odds at BetMGM, where a BetMGM promo code could get you up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your initial wager loses.
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