With all 12 teams technically still alive in the Olympic men’s hockey tournament entering Tuesday’s qualification games, there are a huge number of possibilities ahead for the medal rounds.
As of this moment, however, there are only 14 gold-medal game matchups, however, that are plausible — which we’re defining as odds of 1 percent or greater.
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We’ll acknowledge up front that a huge upset or two could add some chaos to the bracket and potentially serve up an unexpected outcome. Some of these teams listed below could even get eliminated early in the qualification period, perhaps by the time you read this.
But we’re boldly still going to go ahead and rank these 14 possibilities — from most compelling to least — and then cross our fingers that this tournament finishes with a bang.
(For more on how the bracket works in the elimination and medal rounds, see our explainer of the format. And for more projections and odds, Dom Luszczyszyn has a great breakdown here that he’s updating throughout the tournament.)
1. Canada vs. United States
Chance it happens: 44 percent
Mirtle rank: 1
McIndoe rank: 1
We don’t have to overthink things here. While hockey fans around the world are rooting for their own countries, there’s no doubt what the NHL is hoping for at this tournament. And while it took a few years back in the Canada Cup era, it’s fair to say that these two teams really do represent the best rivalry in the sport right now, complete with some very legitimate bad blood.
Last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off was a success beyond just about anyone’s expectations, with Team Canada and Team USA providing a pair of classics. While there’s probably some element of fatigue in other countries at having to hear about this rivalry as if it’s the only one in the sport, it’s still fair to call this matchup the ideal ending of this tournament.
And it’s clearly the most likely one to happen, with these countries seeded 1-2 and the brackets lined up for a memorable showdown. — McIndoe
2. Finland vs. Sweden
Chance it happens: 4.3 percent
Mirtle rank: 2
McIndoe rank: 2
These longtime rivals would be serving up a 20-years-later rematch of the 2006 gold medal game won by Sweden off a Nick Lidstrom winner in the third period. Battles between the Finns and Swedes are always great theater, regardless of their level of NHL talent on paper, as they always find a way to close the gap and play tight, heated games.
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Finland’s gutsy win over the Swedes during the round robin led to a lot of the bracket chaos that has unfolded, ultimately bumping Sweden down to the No. 7 seed and giving them a grueling path that likely goes through the U.S. and Canada to a medal.
It would be fitting if they then both clawed their way back to play for gold, beating the world’s best teams to get to face one another in a big game, yet again. — Mirtle
3. Canada vs. Finland
Chance it happens: 15.7 percent
Mirtle rank: 3
McIndoe rank: 4
You could really take your pick between these next two entries, as both would have similar appeal: tons of NHL talent, an underdog facing stiff but far from insurmountable odds, a North American powerhouse facing a gold-or-failure ultimatum, and most of the rest of the world rooting for Team Finland.
I went with the Canadian matchup over the U.S. one for a couple of reasons. First, I’m a raging homer. And second, in an NHL season in which you could argue that the two best teams have been the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars, this would be a phenomenal appetizer for an eventual playoff showdown. Team Canada has Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon, while Team Finland has… well, Team Finland pretty much has the entire Stars roster.
As an added bonus, when the entire crowd is chanting “A-HO,” you wouldn’t be sure if it was directed at Finland star Sebastian Aho or if it was because Tom Wilson just flipped out again. — McIndoe
4. USA vs. Finland
Chance it happens: 9.3 percent
Mirtle rank: 4
McIndoe rank: 5
We always talk about the Finns as the underdogs, but they also have the most medals (four) of any country during the previous five NHL-attended Olympics, with one silver and three bronze. The U.S., meanwhile, has two silvers total, going home empty-handed three times (1998, 2006 and 2014).
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The Finns are also the defending Olympic champs after winning gold in 2022 without NHL players there. Winning gold here, however, in a best-on-best tournament, would be a massive cultural moment for Finland and a monumental accomplishment for one of the most passionate hockey countries in the world. The Americans, meanwhile, are searching for their first Olympic gold since the Miracle on Ice 46 years ago, one of the peak moments in Games history and their own touchstone moment.
That’s a lot on the line, to be sure. — Mirtle
5. USA vs. Germany
Chance it happens: 3.7 percent
Mirtle rank: 6
McIndoe rank: 3
Their meeting in the round robin was legitimately spicy, with high stakes and some notable trash-talking. It also wasn’t especially competitive, at least after a tight first period. But if we’re going to get a David versus Goliath matchup in the final, this would be the best of the bunch.
Mix in Leon Draisaitl trying to get his revenge for the bridesmaid thing and the Tkachuk brothers gleefully playing the villain role, and it’s not hard to figure out who most of the rest of the world would be rooting for. And while you might assume Germany wouldn’t have much chance against a stacked American squad, remember that in this scenario, they’ve already beaten some very good teams in the elimination phase to get here.
In a single-elimination tournament, sometimes it’s just about who gets hot at the right time. Watching it happen to a Cinderella team could be all sorts of fun, especially against a suitable final boss such as Team USA. — McIndoe
6. Canada vs. Germany
Chance it happens: 2.7 percent
Mirtle rank: 5
McIndoe rank: 8
Sure, the odds are going to be heavily stacked against the Germans, given they have only eight NHLers — and that’s if we include AHLers Josh Samanski and Lukas Reichel. Canada, meanwhile, has 400 to choose from. But the fact you’ll have Draisaitl leading this squad up against his Edmonton Oilers teammate and close friend Connor McDavid with the uber-favorites certainly adds a nice storyline to this one.
If you love an underdog matchup, it doesn’t get much bigger in the sport than this. The Germans have been making strides internationally for years and have a vibrant domestic league with passionate fans, but a win in Milan could catapult interest in the sport and player development in the country to the next level. — Mirtle
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7. Canada vs. Slovakia
Chance it happens: 3.8 percent
Mirtle rank: 7
McIndoe rank: 9
What more can you say about Juraj Slafkovský’s incredible Olympics? The 21-year-old’s three goals and six points through three games put him second in tournament scoring and have been instrumental in getting the underdog Slovaks the third seed after the round robin and a far easier path through to the medal games.
Watching him try to lead his team up against powerhouse Canada for the gold medal would be great theater, especially after Slafkovský has arrived as one of the best young players in the NHL this season with a rising Montreal Canadiens club. The Slovaks are a little thin on NHL talent after some lean development years, but there’s another wave coming — and it’s clear who’s going to be leading the charge for the next couple decades. — Mirtle
8. USA vs. Switzerland
Chance it happens: 2.2 percent
Mirtle rank: 10
McIndoe rank: 7
As James reminded me, this would be a rematch of the most recent World Championships final. Team USA won that one, but Switzerland took home their second straight silver medal at the event. These guys are the real deal, and having them make an appearance in the gold medal game would be an emphatic way to announce that to the rest of the hockey world once and for all.
Would they have a chance at beating Team USA? Sure. They’d be massive underdogs, but it’s hockey, and it’s winner-take-all. Cheering for an upset is a cherished part of sports fandom, so you could absolutely get on board here. And we’d also get some nice NHL-themed subplots built in, including Jack Hughes vs. Nico Hischier and Timo Meier, plus Team Switzerland playing for injured teammate Kevin Fiala.
(Plus, if you’re a bitter Canadian and you’re willing to drink heavily enough on a Sunday morning, you could squint and tell yourself those red-and-white guys are Team Canada.) — McIndoe
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9. Finland vs. Czech Republic
Chance it happens: 1.2 percent
Mirtle rank: 12
McIndoe rank: 6
Maybe this is the old man in me talking, but I could live with a matchup between two teams from what we used to call the hockey world’s Big Six or Big Seven nations. The Czechs are one of only three countries to ever win gold at an NHL Olympics, and the Finns have won more medals than any other country. (Yes, including Canada.) If you’re not familiar with their game, as the kids say, that’s on you.
Would this matchup be a tough sell in North America? Maybe. It’s certainly not the one Gary Bettman and friends are hoping for. But let’s be honest: Most American and Canadian fans would probably admit that if their team isn’t in the final, they don’t want the other guys to make it either. And in a world in which everyone over here is freaking out about Team USA and Team Canada both getting knocked out early, it might be kind of fun to sit down and watch a classic battle between two teams that feature plenty of elite NHL talent.
There might even still be time to get Jaromir Jagr and Teemu Selanne over to drop the ceremonial puck. Or suit up and play. — McIndoe
10. Germany vs. Sweden
Chance it happens: 1.0 percent
Mirtle rank: 9
McIndoe rank: 11
There would need to be some big upsets for these two teams to link up for gold, with both nations knocking off giants in earlier rounds. But the fact the probability exists at all speaks to how much the bracket has been disrupted already with Germany (along with Slovakia and Switzerland) ranked ahead of powerhouse Sweden after the round robin.
Draisaitl and Moritz Seider would again have their hands full in this matchup, but what adds to the intrigue here is that Germany might be more likely to pull off the upset given how uneven the Swedes have looked in the tournament. And if they’ve felled one giant to get to the final, why not another? — Mirtle
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11. Canada vs. Switzerland
Chance it happens: 3.8 percent
Mirtle rank: 8
McIndoe rank: 12
We watched this one once already in the round robin, and the results were just OK. Led by Roman Josi and Hischier, the plucky Swiss hung with Canada’s star-studded lineup for the game’s first half, but the talent gap was evident in what became a 5-1 win for the Canadians.
Plus, Switzerland will be missing a big piece without Fiala, who was forced out of the tournament with a leg injury suffered in that game against Canada when Wilson landed on him.
The underdog story helps give this rematch some intrigue, especially given Switzerland’s success at World Championships in recent years, but not enough to bump this one any higher. — Mirtle
12. Slovakia vs. Sweden
Chance it happens: 1.1 percent
Mirtle rank: 10
McIndoe rank: 13
After everything Team Sweden would have been through to get here, including injuries and the toughest possible path to the final, it would feel weird to see them emerge as the heavy favorites in a gold medal game.
I’m honestly not sure if that helps or hurts the appeal of this matchup, since it would be awfully tough to root against either side. I suppose there’s something to be said for just sitting back and enjoying a high-stakes hockey game. And besides, watching Rasmus Dahlin battle it out with Slafkovský will be good practice for the next decade of Atlantic Division finals. — McIndoe
13. Sweden vs. Czech Republic
Chance it happens: 1.1 percent
Mirtle rank: 14
McIndoe rank: 10
Keep in mind the path that each team would have taken to get here, which would include Sweden beating Team USA and the Czechs beating Canada. If this is the matchup we end up with, nobody would be able to say these teams hadn’t earned it.
Mix in the star power on both sides, especially Sweden, and a lot of what I wrote about a potential Finland/Czech Republic matchup would apply here, too. And there’s probably just enough separation between the two teams that you could talk yourself into the Czechs as a fun underdog story. Or maybe you’d root for Sweden, which has had to overcome some tough injury luck. Or maybe you’d just sit back and remember that the combination of high-stakes hockey without a strong rooting interest can be an amazing watch. — McIndoe
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14. Switzerland vs. Sweden
Chance it happens: 1.2 percent
Mirtle rank: 13
McIndoe rank: 14
Maybe we’re not being creative enough, but we both struggled to identify a reason this would make for a compelling final for a global audience.
That said, there is a budding rivalry here in international play. The Swiss consider Sweden a bit of a nemesis, given they’ve had a lot of crushing defeats against them over the years, including losses in the 2013 and 2018 gold medal games at the World Championships. Perhaps a rematch with Olympic gold on the line would increase the visibility of that rivalry — and further showcase how far Swiss hockey has come in recent years. — Mirtle
