David Tepp is the Founder of Tepp Wealth Management, a SEC-registered investment adviser based in Westfield, New Jersey.
Gold’s rally may have grabbed more headlines, but both silver and the yellow metal warrant closer analysis. Both commodities are surging—gold setting fresh highs above $2,500 an ounce and silver crossing $50 for the first time—and yet, neither may have reached their ceiling.
Silver Steps Out Of Gold’s Shadow
The Financial Times recently reported that the U.S. added silver to its official list of critical minerals, alongside copper, underscoring its role in the global energy transition. The move is more than symbolic: It places silver in the same strategic category as lithium and nickel—indispensable to solar panels, batteries and electronics.
This reclassification has two major implications. First, it formalizes silver’s position as a national-security resource, tying its price trajectory to policy-driven demand rather than just investor sentiment. Second, it widens the procurement base. Governments, defense contractors and clean-energy manufacturers are all entering the market.
Alpine Macro argues that this dual role—part commodity, part currency—makes silver uniquely leveraged to both inflation and growth. When industrial demand rises in tandem with monetary distrust, the metal can outperform nearly every other asset class.
According to Bloomberg, silver prices have surged faster than gold this year, outperforming most equity sectors. The rally has been fueled not just by investors hedging macro risk but also by short covering among traders and record demand from the solar industry, which alone consumes roughly 30% of annual silver supply.
Moreover, the industrial side of the equation is gaining dominance. The green transition, AI hardware and defense applications all consume vast amounts of silver. Every solar panel, semiconductor and electric vehicle adds incremental pressure to supply.
This demand-supply mismatch is no small matter. The Silver Institute estimates a global silver deficit of nearly 150 million ounces for 2025—one of the largest shortfalls on record. Physical inventories at major exchanges are thinning. When you combine tightening supply with new industrial demand and the psychological tailwind of gold’s breakout, the result is a rare alignment of structural forces.
Gold: The Confidence Barometer
Gold’s role in this cycle is simpler and more profound. It’s not an inflation hedge; it’s a trust hedge.
Central banks—particularly in China, Turkey and across the Gulf—have been buying gold at the fastest pace in decades. The message is clear: The dollar may still be dominant, but faith in its long-term purchasing power is fading.
For decades, investors viewed gold as the antithesis of progress—a relic from a bygone era of fixed exchange rates. But in an age of algorithmic trading, digital currencies and weaponized sanctions, its appeal is timeless: It’s the one asset that sits outside the system.
Economist David Rosenberg’s observation that gold is rallying despite positive real yields drives this point home. When confidence in governance declines, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes irrelevant. Investors aren’t chasing yield; they’re chasing safety.
Ironically, gold’s steady rise may be one of the few metrics that still measures global unease with mathematical precision.
The Broader Context: Credibility, Scarcity And Substitution
Together, gold and silver tell a story about scarcity in an age of excess. While global deficits are ballooning, commodities remain finite.
Unlike technology or crypto, the precious metals complex doesn’t scale. You can’t “code” more gold. You can’t 3D-print silver supply. And while digital assets offer portability, they still depend on the same energy and network infrastructure that silver helps power.
Rosenberg frames it as fiscal unsustainability; Alpine Macro calls it structural repricing. Either way, both metals are being revalued as investors relearn the uncomfortable truth that tangible scarcity still matters.
What To Watch For
So, where do the metals go from here? If history is any guide, the rally isn’t finished, but it will hinge on four critical forces worth tracking:
1. Real yields: The 10-year TIPS yield is often a bellwether of the metals market. A sustained drop below 1.5% may ignite the next leg higher for both gold and silver.
2. Dollar index (DXY): A weaker dollar remains the single most consistent driver of precious metal gains. A move below 100 could signal a renewed rotation into hard assets.
3. Central bank activity: Watch for continued accumulation from China, India and the Gulf. Their demand isn’t tactical, it’s philosophical. The de-dollarization theme is slow but persistent.
4. ETF and futures flows: Retail inflows have just begun to recover. Institutional interest remains light. If hedge funds and pension allocators begin rotating even modestly into metals, liquidity could drive prices well beyond today’s levels.
Gold’s ascent reflects the erosion of trust in monetary stewardship; silver’s breakout reflects a simultaneous industrial revolution. What began as a hedge trade is morphing into a structural shift driven by deficits, decarbonization and doubt. Gold may be the timeless asset, but silver—once the forgotten cousin—may now be the metal of modernity.
Investment advisory services are offered through Tepp RIA, LLC dba Tepp Wealth Management, a registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply any particular level of skill. Additional information, including our current disclosure brochure, is available at no cost at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or by written request to Tepp Wealth Management, 210 Elmer Street, Westfield, NJ 07090. Views expressed are as of publication and may change without notice. This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should consult qualified professionals before making decisions. Different investments involve varying degrees of risk with the potential for loss, including principal.
Forbes Finance Council is an invitation-only organization for executives in successful accounting, financial planning and wealth management firms. Do I qualify?