Geopolitical and fiscal turbulence, emanating in large part from the United States, has been credited with driving gold’s recent and historic surge.
Over the weekend, the price of the precious metal capped off its latest rally by topping $5,000-per-ounce for the first time ever, with silver also pushing further past its own $100 milestone.
“As with last year, I think we have Donald Trump to thank for the upward pressure in gold,” said Adrian Ash, director of research at the trading platform BullionVault, telling Newsweek that the president’s angling toward Greenland, threats against U.S. allies and the “new world disorder” these represent have fueled a fresh appetite for the safe haven asset.
Why It Matters
Gold typically exhibits an inverse correlation with other assets—equities, government bonds or the U.S. dollar—and its price is therefore treated as a barometer of declining confidence in these markets as well as investor uncertainty more broadly.
While many in the precious metals market had long-assumed gold would surpass the $5,000 mark at some point, this occurred far sooner than expected—”making a bit of a mockery of market forecasters,” according to Ash. And the rapid rise, coinciding with a drop in the dollar’s value, has both highlighted and amplified concerns about America’s economic and political trajectory.
What To Know
Ash said gold’s latest gains could aptly be described as a “rush,” with both retail investors and central banks racing to buy amid new “geopolitical tensions” as well as “long-standing fears about America’s fiscal health.”
Reflecting this rush, shares in gold-mining companies like Newmont and Freeport have soared in recent months, and Ash told Newsweek that BullionVault has “never been as busy for new customers.”
And at the heart of the latest rally, experts tell Newsweek, are Trump’s now-retracted threats to acquire Greenland for the U.S. by any means necessary and to levy sanction-like tariffs on the nations opposing this plan. Although the president publicly ruled out the use of military force, Ash said that the longstanding impression of the U.S. as “the anchor of stability in geopolitics” had already been eroded by these events and other developments over the past year.
Contributing to this are fears about America’s mounting national debt, as well as expectations that the U.S. central bank will pursue further rate cuts in 2026—making yields on other assets fall and nonyielding assets like gold more attractive by comparison.
“Gold was driven to $5,000 by a perfect storm of Fed easing expectations, geopolitical shocks, and record central‑bank buying,” said Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING.
“With the outlook for U.S. public finances expected to worsen, this could extend the current buying trends of central banks and investors—as gold is an asset with no counterparty risk,” added UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
But beyond the U.S. itself, the rush from central banks and retail investors is to some a reflection of a general deterioration in the West’s fiscal status quo, and the significant public debt now carried by most advanced economies.
“Arguably debt is awash especially in the West and there appears limited appetite to address it,” said Ross Norman, CEO at MetalsDaily.com. “There is a sense the problem is feeding upon itself. In short, gold reflects a deep malaise.”
This “deep malaise,” Norman told Newsweek, is not purely about geopolitical or strictly American concerns, but rather declining confidence in a global financial system “that may be past its sell-by date”—at the core of which sits “uncontrolled debt.”
And these concerns have only been exacerbated by the “geopolitical heavy-handedness” now on display from Trump, and the declining trust in dollar assets like Treasuries and U.S. equities.
What People Are Saying
Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist for the Americas at the World Gold Council, told Newsweek: “The biggest risk to gold would be a meaningful improvement in global risk sentiment, particularly if economic growth strengthens without added geopolitical tension. A clearer path to stable growth, lower uncertainty, and renewed confidence in policy coordination could reduce the urgency for defensive assets.”
“Rising interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, or a sustained shift back toward risk assets could also slow gold’s momentum,” he added. “That said, none of those conditions currently appear firmly in place, which helps explain why gold remains well supported.”
What Happens Next
The price of gold currently sits at around $5,090 as of Monday afternoon, and Ash told Newsweek that profit-taking by some of the more fair-weather investors could keep the metal anchored around this level for the immediate future.
Meanwhile, Manthey said that a “hawkish” pivot by the Federal Reserve away from further easing could slow the rally, but added that, “if current conditions persist, new record highs are not just possible, they’re likely.”