Mayor Eric Adams — no longer reckoning with the prospects of prison time for alleged corruption — has switched party affiliations and will run for re-election as an independent in the November general election.
What this means for real estate is looking complicated, though. Adams would likely square off mano a mano against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who still holds the strongest poll numbers in the race and could clinch the Democratic primary on June 24. Both Adams and Cuomo have strong support from the real estate industry, as well as image problems owing to allegations of wrongdoing.
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A day after a federal judge permanently dismissed the charges against Adams, without the ability to resurrect them at the state level, Adams announced he would skip the Democratic primary altogether. The announcement came in a video posted to X on Thursday morning.
“The dismissal of the bogus case against me dragged on too long, making it impossible to mount a primary campaign while these false accusations were held over me,” Adams said in the video. “Though I am still a Democrat, I am announcing that I will forgo the Democratic primary for mayor and appeal directly to all New Yorkers as an independent candidate in the general election.”
The Cuomo campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Adams and Cuomo both carry considerable political baggage. Cuomo resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual misconduct. Plus, he passed the 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act while in office, which many in the real estate industry blame for slashing the values of rent-regulated housing. Cuomo is trying to make amends and recently apologized for the law in a meeting with the Real Estate Board of New York.
Meanwhile, Adams had the weight of a five-count indictment for an alleged straw donor scheme that imploded his administration from the inside out — leading to a mass exodus of his administration — and criticism from some that he’s “beholden” to President Donald Trump.
Yet, both men also bring their own set of strengths for the real estate industry, such as Cuomo’s record as a builder and Adams pushing the pro-development City of Yes for Housing Opportunity to the finish line despite his legal woes.
“[Adams’s] willingness to engage with Trump also signals a more pragmatic approach, which some see as necessary given the shifting political climate,” Adelaide Polsinelli, principal at Compass, told Commercial Observer. “This will work in NYC’s favor, making his candidacy particularly interesting and effective for a city in need of federal support.
“Meanwhile, Cuomo, despite his controversies, remains the strongest Democrat in the race. However, his track record — especially his policies that severely impacted real estate owners and contributed to the city’s ongoing housing crisis — raises serious concerns,” Polsinelli added.
A Cuomo-versus-Adams general election in November could be a win-win for real estate. Both have long curried favor with the industry and could knock out some more progressive candidates from contention.
Polling shows Assembly member Zohran Mamdani coming second in the Democratic primary. While the Democratic Socialist does have a plan to have unions build 200,000 affordable apartments, his vows to freeze rents on rent-stabilized apartments haven’t won him many friends in the industry, with one developer describing him as “an unmitigated disaster” to The Real Deal.
And a look at where the money’s flowing shows real estate’s feelings. Cuomo’s fundraising efforts got off to an impressive start after he raised $1.4 million in the first 13 days after he announced he was running, with some of the biggest donors coming from real estate or finance.
Cuomo’s donors included RXR CEO Scott Rechler, who dropped $250,000 to Cuomo’s political action committee; A&E Real Estate Management Executive Chairman Douglas Eisenberg, who donated $125,000; and Anthony Scaramucci, the former White House director of communications and founder of SkyBridge Capital, who provided $100,000.
And that’s just the short list.
Adams had raised only $19,000 as of March 18, the New York Times reported. Mamdani hasn’t secured money from any large real estate donors, according to TRD.
But making an independent run can be difficult in New York City, where party affiliations reign supreme. Adams will need a lot of money to surpass Cuomo or another candidate backed by the Democratic Party, as history has shown with former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (who has been a Democrat, Republican and an independent), according to John Kaehny, executive director of watchdog group Reinvent Albany.
“We’re talking in excess of $100 million given what Bloomberg spent previously, and there’s been huge inflation in political expenditures, and particularly through the form of independent expenditures,” Kaehny said. Adams trails all other mayoral candidates in fundraising, as a look at his recent fundraising numbers reveals.
But considering the fact that Adams has had little time to focus on campaigning, a switch to independent buys him time to focus his energy on just one big rival.
“It’s a necessary move to keep him relevant, because it keeps him in the horse race,” Kaehny said. “He was not ready, and will not be ready for a Democratic primary. So it’s kicking the can down the road.”
As for Cuomo’s prospects of winning the race, however, Kaehny doesn’t see the formerly disgraced governor being hindered in a major way in the general election.
“It benefits everyone but Cuomo, and it doesn’t really hurt Cuomo that much,” Kaenhy said. “It just requires a little more energy, and he has to do more explaining to persuade Adams supporters.”
One thing political adviser Jordan Barowitz is certain of is that when Trump is in the White House, all bets are off.
“Trump’s presidency sends New York’s politics haywire. It caused a little-known member of the DSA to knock off a speaker to be in Queens and the incumbent Democratic mayor to drop out of the primary and run as an independent,” Barowitz said, referring to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s victory in 2018 over Joe Crowley, who was in line to be speaker of the House of Representatives.
The Democratic primary not only already includes Cuomo, but also New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams; former Comptroller Scott Stringer; state legislators Mamdani, Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos; attorney Jim Walden; former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson; and former Bronx Assembly member Michael Blake.
Further dividing the votes in the general election will be Curtis Sliwa, a perennial candidate for mayor and founder of the private anti-crime group Guardian Angels. In the 2021 general election, Adams took 66.99 percent of the vote while Sliwa had the backing of 27.76 percent of New Yorkers who cast ballots.
Mark Hallum can be reached at mhallum@commercialobserver.com.