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- Chipotle (CMG) cut its full-year 2025 comparable sales forecast for the third consecutive time, now projecting a low single-digit decline.
- Chipotle’s Q3 comparable same-store sales grew just 0.3%, missing the 1.36% analyst expectation, driven by pullback from customers aged 25 to 34.
- Booz Allen Hamilton faces revenue decline from government contract uncertainty, with analysts expecting fiscal 2026 revenue to drop 5.1% and EPS to fall 12.43%.
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Q3 2025 has knocked down several stocks, but sometimes the market does throw the baby out with the bathwater. Well-established solid businesses like Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), Booz Allen Hamilton (NYSE:BAH), and SPS Commerce (NASDAQ:SPSC) have declined significantly after reporting their most recent earnings figures.
If you like investing for the long term and buying stocks at a discount, now may be the time. Those who accumulate stocks of such businesses in troubled times end up being the biggest winners when they eventually recover. Obviously, this can take years, but the gains can be juicy. Just a single strong report can reset sentiment overnight.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Chipotle Mexican Grill is an American multinational fast-casual restaurant chain. It specializes in freshly made Mexican-inspired food such as burritos, bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and salads.
The Q3 earnings report caused CMG stock to plunge by over 20%. The company has cut its full-year 2025 comparable sales forecast for the third consecutive time, now projecting sales to decline in the low single-digit range, rather than remaining flat.
Q3 revenue of $3 billion met expectations, but comparable same-store sales grew just 0.3%. Analysts expected 1.36%. CEO Scott Boatwright said that the company is seeing a “significant pullback” from customers aged 25 to 34. Customers who make $100,000 in that age bracket have pulled back even more.
This demographic makes up a core customer base, but is cutting back on dining out due to economic strain.
Despite all that negativity and pain today, it might make sense to start accumulating. Younger customers may be in a tough spot today, but the trend may reverse as the economy loosens up with rate cuts.
You’re paying 28 times earnings for CMG stock today, which is far lower than the 64 times historical PE ratio. The market is unlikely to pay that much due to revenue growth slowing into the high single digits from a 3-year growth rate of 15.8% annually, but the sharp pullback prices in that slowdown and then some.
I’d gladly snap up the stock at 2020 prices.
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)
Booz Allen Hamilton is also going through a tough time, despite being one of the few major public companies that underpin intelligence operations.
The company provides consulting and tech services to the U.S. government and its agencies. Nearly all of its revenue comes from federal contracts. Before 2025, government contracts were the evergreen source of revenue, with both shareholders and companies vying for them.
Today, those contracts have led to investor unease due to government shutdowns and an overhaul in how the U.S. allocates funds for defense/intelligence.
If you’re in it for the long run, though, BAH stock is a great place to park some money. You will likely see more volatility in 2025 and perhaps in 2026, too, before things settle down. If you have the patience to ride through it, you can expect 50-60% upside or more in a 24-36 month window.
Analysts expect fiscal 2026 (ends in March 2026) to lead to a 5.1% revenue decline and a 12.43% EPS decline, after which Booz Allen Hamilton will start growing again.
It is a quality business with a deep contract moat with the government. Once it eventually starts landing contracts again from the U.S. government, it can start recovering rapidly. You also get a 2.48% dividend yield.
SPS Commerce (SPSC)
SPS Commerce is a cloud-based supply chain management software company. The stock has been on a rather ugly losing streak, down 55.6% year-to-date, with multiple sharp selloffs after every earnings release, except Q1.
This was not due to the business sinking into the red. Instead, Wall Street previously overestimated the company’s potential and has now taken things too far in the other direction.
The company grew revenue from $163.7 million in Q3 2024 to $189.9 million in Q3 2025. Operating income also rose from $86.5 million to $100.8 million in the same period.
The stock still dropped by nearly 30% as analysts expected $192.68 million in revenue. Beyond the Q3 miss, the company provided disappointing guidance for Q4 2025 and the initial 2026 outlook. SPS Commerce expects 2025 revenue guidance to $751.6 million to $753.6 million, up 18% year-over-year.
What followed was a slew of analyst downgrades that worsened sentiment.
I believe now is an excellent time to buy the dip. You’re paying just 20 times earnings for a company growing both sales and earnings in the double digits. The growth is expected to slow down to 10-14% on the bottom line and 7-8% in the top line. But for a software company, that’s plenty of growth to trade at a higher valuation.
Supply chain management + automation is also a business with tons of future growth potential due to AI and robotics.
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