Bitcoin’s derivatives market continues to send bullish signals as Binance funding rates remain positive for over a week, hinting at growing optimism among traders. Historically, sustained positive funding rates — where long traders pay short sellers — suggest that bullish momentum is building across futures markets.
As of October 29, Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $114,300, holding firm above key support near $113,000 despite a period of consolidation. The steady sentiment follows renewed ETF inflows, improved on-chain metrics, and growing institutional confidence, indicating that the next potential rally phase could be underway.
Binance Funding Rates Signal Confidence
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Binance’s BTC funding rates have stayed positive since October 22, reflecting a steady rise in trader sentiment. Positive rates typically mean that more traders are opening long positions in anticipation of upward price movement.
Historically, such conditions have preceded short-term recoveries or sustained rallies — especially after price consolidations. The last time funding rates held positive for this long was in late September, just before Bitcoin climbed from $98,000 to $110,000.
This renewed confidence suggests that traders expect further upside, particularly as Bitcoin continues to attract institutional inflows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
On-Chain Metrics Point to Strong Structural Support
According to Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, Bitcoin currently trades just below the +0.5σ level at $120,338, while the mean price sits near $97,619 and the realized price at $55,579. These figures indicate that BTC remains structurally strong, with significant on-chain support levels reinforcing the long-term bullish setup.
If Bitcoin breaks decisively above the +0.5σ band, analysts expect the next price target to be the +1.0σ zone at $143,056, which aligns with potential new all-time highs. For that to happen, however, the market will need sustained momentum and high-volume participation from institutional investors.
ETF Inflows Reinforce Bullish Sentiment
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to play a major role in market direction. On October 28, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $202 million in net inflows, marking the third consecutive day of positive entries, according to data from SoSoValue.
This consistent flow of capital suggests that institutional investors remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects despite short-term technical uncertainties.
Interestingly, Ethereum ETFs outperformed Bitcoin in daily inflows, bringing in $246 million, led by Fidelity’s FETH ETF, which added $99.27 million in a single day. Such institutional inflows often precede broader crypto market uptrends, as investors allocate capital across major digital assets.
TD Sequential Flashes a Sell Signal
Despite the positive sentiment, caution remains warranted. The TD Sequential indicator — a popular technical tool used to predict trend exhaustion — has flashed a sell signal for Bitcoin.
In 2025 alone, this same indicator has accurately preceded three short-term corrections of approximately 7%, 13%, and 19%, often appearing during periods of overheated funding rates or rapid price acceleration.
While not a guarantee of downside, this signal suggests that Bitcoin could face short-term resistance before resuming any strong upward movement.
Mixed Market Structure: Bullish Momentum vs. Technical Resistance
Bitcoin’s current market structure remains bullish but slightly cautious. The mid-phase bull trend that began in August is still intact, supported by positive funding rates and consistent ETF inflows.
However, traders are closely watching the $120,000 resistance zone, which corresponds with the upper band of the current price consolidation range. A clean breakout above this level — confirmed by high trading volume — could pave the way toward the next major resistance at $135,000.
Failure to sustain momentum above $113,000 could invite short-term profit-taking and corrections, particularly if derivative traders begin to unwind overleveraged long positions.
Institutional Demand and Macro Sentiment
Beyond technicals, institutional sentiment continues to favor Bitcoin. The combination of steady ETF inflows, declining exchange balances, and positive derivatives positioning paints a strong macro picture.
Additionally, the broader financial environment remains supportive. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in 2025 have boosted risk appetite, leading investors to reallocate into digital assets. If macroeconomic conditions continue to stabilize, Bitcoin could benefit from both increased liquidity and reduced dollar strength.
Analysts’ View: Controlled Optimism
Market analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic stance. “The alignment between positive funding rates, ETF inflows, and improving on-chain health indicates a bullish setup,” noted one derivatives analyst from CryptoQuant. “But the TD Sequential warning suggests we could see short-term corrections before another leg up.”
This means traders may experience brief dips before a potential continuation toward higher levels. Historically, such corrections have served as healthy resets in broader uptrends.
The Road Ahead
For now, the key levels to watch are $113,000 on the downside and $120,000 on the upside. A break above resistance could validate Bitcoin’s bullish continuation pattern, potentially targeting the $130,000–$135,000 range in November.
On the other hand, a failure to hold the $113,000 floor might push prices back toward the $109,000 support area — where previous buying activity has historically reemerged.
Overall, Bitcoin’s strong funding rates, on-chain resilience, and consistent institutional inflows suggest the asset remains well-positioned for another leg higher — provided short-term corrections do not derail momentum. The next few trading sessions will be crucial in determining whether BTC can transition from consolidation to the next phase of its 2025 bull run.
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