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They say it’s a pathology when your mental health is negatively affected by a fall in your market assets. So I must be mad, because I get a horrible feeling in my gut when the market and my stocks dump. I bet I’m not alone. However, getting that feeling when an asset you don’t hold collapses must require a special ward in the asylum – and I need to get their phone number, because I’m looking at bitcoin. It looks ugly, and I feel it.
I’ve been calling this crash since the bubble hit $100,000, when I bailed – you can read a series of bitcoin articles from me calling it up and down here on Forbes. Now we are approaching the denouement of this cycle’s bitcoin crash.
This is what I see as the outcome. You will notice I won’t include a bull point of view, because in the end I believe that probability is not worth discussing until the next leg down is over. Remember, I posted this here in late January, so you can suspend your disbelief for a bit:
The bitcoin chart – suddenly swinging downwards
Credit: ADVFN
So rather than stretch out the agony, here is the map, if no miracle occurs:
My prediction for where bitcoin could go now
Credit: ADVFN
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That is what I see unfolding. A bottom between $30,000 and $40,000.
However, in true modern internet argot, I can do worse.
Have a look at this. I had to redraw the axis to fit it in.
That’s a 4-leg crash, and I do not expect it. But if we hit a pause between $30,000 and $40,000, that is the precipice buyers will be looking at.
The bitcoin chart: the extreme outcome
Credit: ADVFN
If we get there, I’ll show you how to trade it on the long side – if you still hold the faith.
Personally, I’m over bitcoin as an investment. It was lovely to me, but now it’s just another asset. However, there are way to trade the next cycle, and if I call this leg right, I’ll show you the map of what to do then.
It shouldn’t be long this time before I’m either right or wrong about this next move.
Good luck, everybody.