Bitcoin Price Annual Forecast: BTC holds long-term bullish structure heading into 2026

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Bitcoin (BTC) is wrapping up 2025 as one of its most eventful years, defined by unprecedented institutional participation, major regulatory developments, and extreme price volatility. While the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization surged to a fresh all-time high, shifting macroeconomic conditions and rising geopolitical uncertainty kept price action uneven in the short term, while maintaining a constructive long-term outlook. However, forecasts from prominent crypto experts continue to point to upside in 2026.

Bitcoin in 2025: Favorable regulatory shifts, institutional adoption and record volatility

Rollercoaster ride of record highs and sharp corrections

Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $126,199 on October 6, briefly lifting its market capitalization above $2.47 trillion and ranking it as the world’s seventh-largest asset, surpassing tech giants like Amazon (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META). 

However, the rally was followed by a sharp correction, with BTC trading around $85,000 in mid-December. Although 2025 ended broadly flat, it was a volatile period marked by record highs, deep pullbacks, and elevated volatility.

President Trump’s pro-crypto stance

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections in November 2024 was widely regarded as a positive sign for the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. During his election campaign, Trump adopted a pro-crypto stance and promised to set the stage for a dramatic shift in US crypto policy, in contrast to the Biden administration’s crackdown on the industry, which involved more than 100 enforcement actions by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against crypto firms. 

Positive crypto development began with US SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s announcement on November 21, 2024, that he would resign as Chair of the agency, effective January 20, President Trump’s inauguration day. This news had a positive impact on the crypto markets, as Gensler had previously taken an unfavorable stance on digital asset policies.

CryptoQuant’s chart below shows that the monthly percentage growth of Bitcoin holdings among large investors accelerated from -0.25% on January 14 to +2% on January 17, marking the highest monthly rate since mid-December 2024. This rise in demand pushed BTC to a new record high of $109,588 on Trump’s inauguration day, January 20. However, retraced back to $100,000 soon after he was sworn in.

During the same time, US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he had unconditionally pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the dark web marketplace Silk Road.

The US Federal authorities arrested Ulbricht in 2013, and he was sentenced to life in prison for creating and operating a website (Silk Road) that allowed users to buy and sell illegal drugs, among other illicit products and services. This news gave the crypto community confidence, as Trump fulfilled his promise to the industry.

From campaign promises to Trump’s personal stakes in digital assets

Beyond a positive stance on cryptocurrencies, Donald Trump’s increasing personal exposure to digital assets has strengthened confidence across the crypto market. The Trump family launched World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a DeFi project built on the Ethereum blockchain and endorsed by his sons (Donald Jr., Eric, and Barron) in September 2024.

Market participants viewed this alignment of personal financial interests and political influence as a strong tailwind for crypto adoption and as an expectation of favorable policies and regulations for the digital assets industry. 

So far in 2025, WLFI tokens have been purchased by many renowned individuals and corporations in the crypto space, including Justin Sun, Founder of Tron; Aqua 1 Foundation (a UAE-based venture capital firm); ALT5 Sigma Corporation; and many others.

The Arkham intelligence data below indicates that WLFI currently holds $6.93 billion in tokens, comprising Ethereum (ETH), Aave (AAVE), Chainlink (LINK), and others. The DeFi project has also launched its own stablecoin, USD1, which is 1:1 backed by the US Dollar (USD).  Apart from these developments, Trump’s interest in digital assets continues to grow as his Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) company has filed for a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) with the US SEC, which remains under review.

Trade war and tariffs 

As Trump took control of the Oval Office, his tariff policies, often termed a ‘trade war’ with countries such as China, Canada, Mexico, and others, triggered a risk-off mood for riskier assets, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, despite his pro-crypto stance on regulation.

In early February, when the first tariffs were announced (i.e., 25% on Canada and Mexico, an additional 10% on China), the market reaction triggered declines and BTC briefly fell below $100,000 amid risk-off sentiment. These trade developments escalated further when President Trump announced ‘Liberation Day’ in April, imposing reciprocal tariffs on 180 countries.

This sparked a risk-off sentiment across markets, with BTC reaching a yearly low of $74,508 on April 7. However, a 90-day tariff pause led to a rebound, with BTC recovering above $100,000 by early May.

In October, the announcement of 100% additional tariffs on Chinese software and goods, effective November 1, triggered the largest crypto liquidation event in history, wiping billions in liquidations, with BTC crashing up to 16% from near $122,000 to $102,000 in a flash crash on October 10.

Overall, tariff announcements this year repeatedly coincided with sharp declines in Bitcoin, while recoveries tended to follow pauses or deal-related developments – though heightened volatility persisted throughout the year.

Geopolitical conflicts and Bitcoin price volatility

In 2025, escalating tensions, mainly in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Asia, triggered short-term volatility in the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, with prices dipping up to 10% as investors de-risked. 

In Q1, Russia-Ukraine escalations and early Asian tensions between India and Pakistan added volatility in BTC. This was followed by renewed conflict in Yemen (Houthi strikes on shipping), disrupted trade routes, and a decline in BTC below $100,000 amid spikes in Oil prices.

While in Q2, the Israel-Iran conflict peaked, as Israel struck Iranian airports and nuclear sites. Iran retaliated with drones and missiles on Israeli and US targets (i.e, Qatar base), threatening Strait of Hormuz closure, triggering risk-off sentiment, and wider volatility in the broader crypto market.

Favorable policies and regulations for digital assets 

Indeed, 2025 marked a decisive shift toward greater regulatory clarity and a more crypto-friendly policy environment under pro-crypto President Donald Trump. These favourable policies and regulations are explained in detail below.

Formation of the SEC’s crypto task force

In January, the US SEC acting Chairman, Mark Uyeda, launched a crypto task force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce to provide a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, a first step towards a clearer regulatory process for the crypto industry.

This was followed by President Trump signing an executive order to support crypto and promote US leadership in digital assets. It also aimed to create a strategic national digital asset stockpile for the US. 

The executive order also prohibited any action to create or promote a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and reversed the Biden administration’s prior order 14067 on digital assets. The order emphasized open access to blockchain networks and protection for dollar-backed stablecoins, signaling an emphasis on innovation over restriction.

The first-ever White House Crypto Summit

The first-ever White House Crypto Summit took place in March and discussed regulation and innovation in the cryptocurrency sector. This Summit marked a significant milestone in US digital asset policy, highlighting the government’s supportive stance on crypto and its commitment to establishing clear regulations, as promised by President Trump during his campaign.

Moreover, Trump signed an executive order in March establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) using BTC from “criminal or civil assets forfeiture proceedings,” without deploying fresh capital, and using 207,189 BTC and other cryptocurrencies seized in criminal proceedings.

This development was designed to centralize and manage federal crypto holdings, aiming to prevent losses from premature sales and position the US as a leader in digital asset ownership.

In addition, the US is actively combating crypto-confidence scams and collaborating with law enforcement nationwide to seize and forfeit stolen funds, while also safeguarding investors’ funds. The US Department of Justice (DoJ) announced in June the largest cryptocurrency seizure in its history, targeting more than $225 million linked to cryptocurrency fraud. The FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center reported that cryptocurrency investment fraud caused more than $5.8 billion in losses in 2024 alone.

Stablecoin regulations: The GENIUS Act

The GENIUS Act, enacted into law in mid-July, established a clear federal regulatory framework for stablecoins and their issuers in the US, mandating full reserves backed by the US Dollar and providing clear anti-money laundering (AML) guidance. 

Deutsche Bank Research reported that this landmark bill positions the US as the frontrunner on stablecoins, paving the way for other countries to review their own stablecoin regulations (or lack thereof). 

“It is a significant milestone for the crypto industry, both in the US and globally,” reported Deutsche Bank analysts.

The report also highlighted that the passage of the GENIUS ACT into law would solidify the US Dollar’s dominance, with USD-denominated stablecoins representing over 99% of the total stablecoin market capitalization. The GENIUS Act formalized stablecoin issuers’ role as quasi-money market funds, supporting US short-term debt markets and channeling non-USD liquidity into the US Dollar. 

The US Treasury projects that T-bills held by stablecoin issuers (excluding interest-bearing stablecoins) will reach approximately $1 trillion by 2028. Tether alone held over $120 billion in Treasury bills as of Q1 2025, as shown in the graph below, and ranks among the top holders of US Treasuries.

Additionally, under the GENIUS Act, competition among traditional banks, stablecoin issuers, and corporations is incentivizing players to enter the rapidly growing space and expand stablecoins beyond crypto trading. Corporations in retail (Walmart, Amazon, Airbnb) and payments (PayPal, Shopify) are racing to capitalize on the advantages of stablecoins, including lower remittance costs, 24/7 availability, faster settlement times, and fewer barriers than those imposed by traditional bank accounts.

In June, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the stablecoin market would grow from its current $268 billion to more than $2 trillion over the next few years.

These regulations and developments would boost stablecoin adoption not only in the US but globally, thereby supporting Bitcoin adoption, as stablecoins are generally considered a gateway to cryptocurrencies.

US SEC green lights in-kind creations and redemptions for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs

In July, the US SEC voted to approve orders permitting in-kind creations and redemptions by authorized participants for crypto Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) shares, highlighting growing regulatory clarity in the US for cryptocurrencies.

This order is a departure from the previous cash-only mechanism for spot BTC and ETH ETPs, which were limited to only cash creations and redemptions. This new development allows investors to receive the underlying asset, which is considered more efficient, as it enables the fund’s authorized participants to avoid selling the assets on the market, potentially reducing transaction costs. Moreover, it aligns crypto ETPs with traditional commodity-based ETPs, such as Gold and Oil.

Apart from this development, the Commission also approved other orders that advance a merit-neutral approach to crypto-based products, including exchange applications seeking to list and trade an ETP that would hold mixed spot Bitcoin and spot Ether, options on certain spot Bitcoin ETPs, Flexible Exchange (FLEX) options on shares of certain BTC-based ETPs, and an increase of position limits up to the generic limits for options (up to 250,000 contracts) for listed options on certain BTC ETPs.

US States Bitcoin reserve race 

In addition to the Trump administration’s work on its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, many US states have joined the race to establish their own Bitcoin reserves, as shown in the chart below.  

New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte signed House Bill 302 (HB 302) into law, making the state the first in the US to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The law permits the state treasurer to invest up to 5% of public funds in precious metals or digital assets with a market capitalization of over $500 billion, with BTC alone meeting this condition. While the bill does not specifically mandate the creation of such a reserve, it gives the state’s treasurer discretion to invest in one.

Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs also signed House Bill 2749 (HB 2749) into law, which authorizes the state to claim ownership of unclaimed digital assets, including cryptocurrency, that have been abandoned for at least three years. The law also enables the creation of a Bitcoin and Digital Asset Reserve Fund, which will accumulate value from staking rewards and airdrops of these assets, without using taxpayer funds.

Following these announcements, Texas launched a state-funded Bitcoin reserve, becoming the first US state to do so independently in late June. This marked the first state in the US to authorize a publicly funded, standalone reserve managed outside the state treasury. 

Governor Greg Abbott approved Senate Bill 21 (SB 21), which enables the Texas Comptroller to manage the fund, authorizes qualified third parties to manage the reserve, and requires crypto purchases, with funds appropriated by the legislature or from reserve revenues to be invested in digital assets, similar to the New Hampshire law.

Similar bills are pending in other state legislatures, including Massachusetts, Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio, highlighting the growing adoption of Bitcoin by US states in 2025.

Crypto in retirement plans

In August, President Trump signed an executive order that opened the door to $9 trillion to $12.5 trillion in 401(k) retirement funds, allowing investments in cryptocurrency, private equity, and real estate.

Critics have faulted the move, arguing that it would create instability in retirement accounts while the details of the directive remain undisclosed. 

The order would allow the provision of digital assets, precious metals such as Gold, and private loans in retirement plans to serve as alternatives to the traditional portfolio of Stocks and Bonds.

Mixed flow in institutional demand 

2025 has been a pivotal year for Bitcoin ETFs, building on the spot ETFs launched in January 2024. Institutional adoption accelerated under a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. However, the year has seen mixed flows, with strong inflows early on, followed by significant outflows in Q4 amid Bitcoin price corrections. 

US-listed spot ETFs have recorded $22.65 billion in net inflows for the 2025 year-to-date, as of mid-December, according to the SoSoValue chart below. However, in November, heavy outflows of $3.48 billion erased some gains and contributed to Bitcoin’s pullback from October highs.

CoinGlass’s Bitcoin ETF Total Assets Under Management (AUM) indicates that spot Bitcoin ETF AUM peaked at $165.15 billion on October 8 and has fallen to roughly $123 billion by mid-December. 

Meanwhile, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominated, with net assets currently at $70.12 billion, followed by Fidelity (FBTC) and Grayscale (GBTC). 

Overall, Bitcoin ETFs strengthened institutional participation in 2025, improving market access and supporting price rallies during periods of strong inflows, while potentially dampening volatility over the long term. Despite Q4 setbacks, the outlook remains constructive, as adoption is expected to continue into 2026.

Corporations’ demand for Bitcoin 

On the corporate side, demand is shifting from niche to mainstream, with public companies outpacing ETFs in adoption in 2025. 

Strategy (MSTR), an AI-powered cloud analytics company, solidified its position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, increasing its holdings from 446,000 BTC at the start of 2025 to 671,000 BTC (3.19% of the total supply of 21 million BTC) at the time of writing. 

Bitcoin Treasuries’ November report highlighted that mining companies now account for 12% of public company BTC holdings. Marathon Digital (MARA) holds 53,250 BTC, as shown in the graph below.

Corporate Bitcoin holdings are increasingly global, with US companies still dominating the top 20, with over 2.88 million BTC held across roughly 125 public and private firms, surpassing those in Canada and the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, countries like Japan, China, and Europe are also expanding BTC adoption.

Monetary policy and inflation trigger volatility

Shifts in monetary policy and evolving inflation dynamics have also influenced Bitcoin’s price in 2025. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered three 25-basis-point rate cuts in September, October, and December, bringing the interest rate down to the 3.5%–3.75% range by year-end from 4.25%–4.50% at the start of the year.

Lower interest rate expectations initially supported risk assets, as lower borrowing costs weakened the US Dollar, thereby increasing the risk appetite for BTC, which rallied earlier in the year.

Although market participants expected the Fed to ease policy more aggressively, the central bank acted more cautiously because inflation data in the US remained high.

Bitcoin initially rose on early signs that the Fed was becoming more dovish, but lost momentum amid the Fed’s cautious stance. In short, monetary easing provided temporary support, but it was insufficient to sustain the upside, leading to periods of volatility and corrections.

In an exclusive interview with FXStreet, Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget, said he thinks the three rate cuts from the Fed in 2025 acted as stabilizers for Bitcoin, instead of a growth engine. Lower rates eased pressure from real yields and made holding risk assets like Bitcoin more defensible.

Chen continued, “They didn’t trigger any significant rally. Each cut was followed by short-term volatility as traders focused more on risk appetite than on policy itself. But behavior has changed. Institutions have been more engaged through ETPs throughout the year, even when prices pull back, or during liquidations in October. Risk assets, overall, were repeatedly tested, but we think Bitcoin has held its ground.”

What is there for Bitcoin in 2026?

Looking ahead, the Bitcoin market is now anchored by structural changes and inflows, macro realignment, and clearer rulebooks. Here are some potential predictions for Bitcoin in 2026.

Post-distribution phase and return of buy-side demand

A K33 Research report indicates that, for 2026, the outlook suggests a transition away from the heavy distribution phase observed in 2024 and 2025, with long-term holders’ selling expected to slow.

The report states that the BTC’s 2-year supply is projected to end its multi-year downtrend and close 2026 above the current 12.16 million BTC, signaling renewed holding behavior rather than continued redistribution among BTC investors.

With nearly 20% of the total supply already reactivated over the past two years, as shown below, on-chain sell-side pressure is approaching saturation, setting the stage for a return of net buy-side demand. 

Supported by deeper market liquidity, expanded institutional access, and clearer regulatory frameworks, 2026 is expected to be a post-distribution year, characterized by improved supply stability and a more constructive, demand-driven market structure.

Global crypto ETPs to surpass $400 billion 

The 21Shares’ ‘State of Crypto’ report highlights how crypto ETPs are transitioning from niche access vehicles to a dominant distribution channel. 

In 2025, Bitcoin ETPs alone hold over $140 billion in AUM – approximately 7% of the total BTC supply – , and it could potentially surpass $400 billion, rivaling the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) by the end of 2026. Due to expanding retail access, falling regulatory barriers, and growing institutional and sovereign participation, a powerful, liquidity-driven adoption flywheel is emerging.

Bitcoin’s fading four-year cycle 

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving-driven cycle is increasingly losing its dominance as the BTC matures into a global macro hedge. While the halving cycle still anchors Bitcoin’s transparent monetary policy, with issuance now below 1% annually, its marginal impact on price has diminished.

“Structural inflows, macro realignment, and regulatory clarity now anchor the market,” reports a 21Shares analyst.

The analyst continued, “Even though market outcomes can differ materially from expectations, we believe Bitcoin could be positioned to reach new all-time highs in 2026, with broader markets potentially benefiting from improving liquidity and rising institutional participation. Each cycle now delivers less exponential returns, but also far milder corrections, reflecting Bitcoin’s evolution. The halving may remain symbolic, but it is no longer the engine.”

Stablecoin market capitalization exceeds $500 billion

Hashdex’s report projects that by 2026, stablecoins will emerge as a core pillar of the digital financial system, driven by regulatory clarity following the passage of the GENIUS Act and growing institutional confidence. 

The analyst further explained that the figure would increase from $295 billion today to well over $500 billion in 2026. 

“As projections for stablecoins proliferate – some estimates suggest this market will exceed $2 trillion by 2028 – it’s paramount to dissect the broader implications of their growth for crypto investors, including how they may fundamentally reshape global dollar dominance and the status of US debt as a reserve asset.”

Fed outlook and global geopolitical

On the macroeconomic front, the CME FedWatch tool shows an over 75% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at least twice by the end of 2026, as shown in the chart below.  However, the Fed’s dot plot showed that policymakers see the Federal Funds Rate falling to 3.4% by 2026, indicating only one more interest rate cut from its current 3.50%-3.75% range.

Moreover, Fed dovish expectations are driven by weak United States (US) labour market conditions and President Donald Trump’s continued endorsement of additional interest rate cuts. These dovish expectations of lower central bank interest rates could increase investor risk appetite, boosting Bitcoin prices in 2026.

Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, the ongoing uncertainty between Russia and Ukraine, the US and China, and Thailand and Cambodia could come to an end by 2026. These potential settlements of global uncertainty could trigger a risk-on sentiment, potentially boosting riskier assets such as Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin 2026 Technical Analysis: Long-term bullish structure remains intact

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a strong yet volatile 2025, marked by pronounced quarterly swings. BTC opened the year at $93,576 and made a new all-time high of $109,588 on January 20, just after Trump’s inauguration, breaking the previous year’s high of $108,353.

However, BTC failed to sustain its upward momentum and corrected by 32%, reaching a yearly low of $74,508 at the start of Q2 in early April. 

During Q2 and Q3, BTC posted a series of higher highs and higher lows, trading above the key 100-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and hitting a new all-time high of $126,199 on October 6. 

In the last quarter, BTC failed to sustain upside momentum, signaling trend exhaustion amid profit-taking.

At the time of writing, BTC is stabilizing around the $85,000-$86,000 range, just above key support zones: an ascending trendline (drawn by connecting multiple lows since October 2023), the 100-week EMA at $85,732, and the yearly low at $74,508. These zones are acting as a critical demand area, preventing a deeper sell-off so far.

On the flip side, the immediate resistance levels are the yearly open at $93,576 and the 2024 high at $108,353, which are currently acting as key resistance zones and capping recovery attempts. Meanwhile, the declining volume during the ongoing pullback also suggests that the selling pressure is cooling rather than accelerating, pointing to consolidation rather than a full trend reversal by the year-end and early Q1 2026.

The overall market structure for BTC suggests a healthy correction within a broader bull cycle, unless BTC closes below its yearly low of $74,508, which could extend the correction to the next support level at $66,783, the 200-week EMA. 

While short-term momentum still remains weak, holding above the aforementioned support zones keeps the long-term bullish structure intact, with the next major move likely to depend on a breakout above the $100,000 to $108,000 region, before a rally toward the record high of $126,199.

A Copper Research report also signaled optimism about Bitcoin. The report suggests that BTC’s four-year cycle hasn’t died; it has been replaced. Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin has exhibited repeatable Cost-Basis Return Cycles, as shown in the graph below. 

Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at Copper, told FXStreet that “Since spot ETFs launched, Bitcoin has moved in repeatable mini-cycles where it pulls back to its cost basis and then rebounds by around 70%. With BTC now trading near its $84,000 cost basis, that pattern points to a move north of $140,000 in the next 180 days. If cost basis rises 10-15% as in prior cycles, the resulting premium seen at past peaks produces a target range of $138,000-$148,000.”

Lastly, FXStreet interviewed several experts and prominent figures in the crypto community. Their views about Bitcoin price projection for the end of 2025 and 2026 are given below: 

Experts	End of 2025	End of 2026
Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered	$125,000	$300,000
Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex	$100,000	$250,000
Arjun Vijay, Chief Operating Officer and founder at Indian crypto exchange Giottus	$85,000–$100,000	$120,000–$180,000
Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget	$95,000 – $105,000	$140,000 – $170,000
Ray Youssef, CEO of crypto app NoOnes	$85,000 – $94,000	$120,000 – $135,000

Conclusion 

2025 emerged as a volatile yet transformative year for Bitcoin, marked by accelerating institutional and corporate adoption, key regulatory milestones, and sharp price swings. BTC began the year near $93,500 before rallying to a new all-time high of $126,199 on October 6, fueled by strong ETF inflows and pro-crypto policy signals.

However, macroeconomic headwinds such as trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and broader market uncertainty had triggered a deeper correction for the Crypto King, pushing it below $80,000. By mid-December, Bitcoin is trading around $85,000, leaving annual performance flat to slightly negative.

Despite volatility, 2025 marked Bitcoin’s maturation, with institutional and corporate demand accumulating BTC and surpassing levels seen in 2024. 

Looking ahead, as many of these drivers carry into 2026, technical analysis and expert forecasts continue to support a bullish longer-term outlook, with price targets extending beyond $200,000 by the end of next year.