Bitcoin’s latest rebound has been unusually weak. After dipping to the $85,970 zone, the Bitcoin price bounced just 4% before stalling near $89,380. That BTC price move came despite fresh ETF headlines and signs of technical stabilization.
The problem is timing. Rate-cut optimism is near zero heading into the Federal Reserve decision, and macro caution is overpowering short-term bullish signals. With Bitcoin trading flat across most timeframes, the market is waiting for a clear trigger.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin flashed a hidden bullish divergence between December 18 and January 25. Price formed a higher low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a lower low.
RSI measures momentum strength. When RSI weakens while price holds higher ground, it often hints at a rebound. That signal did work, but only briefly. The BTC price bounce stopped around 4%, topping out near $89,380 before sellers returned.
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This muted reaction matters. Around the same time (between January 25 and January 26), ETF optimism picked up following BlackRock’s filing for a Bitcoin premium-income ETF. Usually, ETF headlines help extend rebounds. This time, they didn’t.
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The missing ingredient is macro support. Polymarket now shows a 99% probability of no rate change at the upcoming FOMC meeting. With hopes of a rate cut absent, liquidity expectations remain tight. That environment limits follow-through, even when technical signals turn positive.
In simple terms, the RSI opened the door for a BTC price bounce, but the rate-cut mood slammed it shut.
While price action looks dull, large Bitcoin holders are behaving differently.
Wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC (smaller whales) increased balances from about 4.28 million to 4.29 million BTC since January 21. Mid-sized holders with 10,000–100,000 BTC lifted holdings from roughly 2.19 million to about 2.20 million BTC. The largest cohort, wallets holding 100,000–1 million BTC, added more aggressively, rising from 664,000 BTC to around 672,000 BTC by January 28.
Combined, these groups added roughly 18,000 BTC, worth about $1.6 billion near current prices.
This accumulation shows long-term conviction, not short-term trading. But conviction alone is not enough. The cost-basis distribution heatmap explains why.
A heavy short-term supply cluster sits between $90,160 and $90,590, backed by roughly 176,000 BTC. That zone has acted as a sell wall. Until price or accumulation size clears it, upside remains capped. Right now, whale absorption isn’t big enough.
Below, support looks firmer. Between $84,440 and $84,840, nearly 395,000 BTC sit at cost basis, creating a strong downside buffer. That explains why recent sell-offs keep stabilizing above these levels.
Whales are buying, but they need the BTC price to break into profit territory above $90,590 to change momentum.
The Bitcoin price is currently stuck between conviction buying and macro hesitation.
On the upside, the first hurdle remains $89,380, the level where the latest rebound failed. Above that, $90,830 is the key breakout zone. This level has rejected repeatedly since January 21 and aligns with the cost-basis sell wall mentioned earlier. A daily close above it would signal that supply is being absorbed.
If that happens, the next upside target sits near $97,190, where prior resistance clusters emerge.
On the downside, risk remains controlled as long as Bitcoin holds above $84,400. That zone aligns with the largest cost-basis support and marks the line where long-term holders are most exposed. A daily close below it would weaken the accumulation narrative and reopen downside risk.
Until the macro picture shifts or $90,830 breaks, Bitcoin’s rebound is likely to stay restrained.
Read original story Bitcoin Rebound Stalls at 4% as Rate-Cut Mood Dominates ETF Buzz — What’s Next For Price? by Ananda Banerjee at beincrypto.com